KRC Genk II 2-4 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zulte Waregem at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this KRC Genk II vs Zulte Waregem fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 5 as KRC Genk II welcome Zulte Waregem to De Leunen. Kick-off is set for Friday 15 September 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, KRC Genk II stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. KRC Genk II have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at De Leunen, KRC Genk II have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Zulte Waregem have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Zulte Waregem have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zulte Waregem's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (KRC Genk II) versus 1.10 (Zulte Waregem). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. KRC Genk II register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Zulte Waregem in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
KRC Genk II trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Zulte Waregem trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — KRC Genk II 56% and Zulte Waregem 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KRC Genk II 56% | Zulte Waregem 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KRC Genk II 1.06 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KRC Genk II attack 0.865 / defence 1.065 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.291 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.421. Zulte Waregem have an above-average attack strength of 1.291 — the away xG of 1.95 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 26 KRC Genk II games / 4 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KRC Genk II 20% | Draw 22% | Zulte Waregem 58%. Fair-value odds: KRC Genk II 5.00 | Draw 4.55 | Zulte Waregem 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Zulte Waregem (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zulte Waregem as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: KRC Genk II 60% | Zulte Waregem 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KRC Genk II vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: De Leunen • Kick-off: Friday 15 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KRC Genk II 20% | Draw 22% | Zulte Waregem 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 56% | xG KRC Genk II 1.06 / Zulte Waregem 1.95 • Poisson strength factors: KRC Genk II attack 0.865 / def 1.065 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.291 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.421 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
KRC Genk II xG
Expected Goals
1.95
Zulte Waregem xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KRC Genk II vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
KRC Genk II vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 September 2023 at De Leunen.
What was the final score in KRC Genk II vs Zulte Waregem?
KRC Genk II 2 - 4 Zulte Waregem.
Where is KRC Genk II vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at De Leunen.
What competition is KRC Genk II vs Zulte Waregem part of?
KRC Genk II vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KRC Genk II vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives KRC Genk II a 20% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 58% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in KRC Genk II vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both KRC Genk II and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will KRC Genk II vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Zulte Waregem?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are KRC Genk II and Zulte Waregem in?
KRC Genk II (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
KRC Genk II's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Zulte Waregem's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Zulte Waregem's attack versus KRC Genk II's defence, projects 1.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
20%
4.99
22%
4.60
58%
1.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
KRC Genk II xG
Total xG
3.01
1.95
Zulte Waregem xG
4.99
20%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
1.72
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
14%
7.06
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
3%
35.18
20%
4.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KRC Genk II vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are KRC Genk II and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for KRC Genk II and 1.95 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for KRC Genk II vs Zulte Waregem?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, KRC Genk II have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 8W 9D 19L record — L-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for KRC Genk II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zulte Waregem's form line: 7W 10D 19L from 36 games, 0.86 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: KRC Genk II on 0.92 PPG, Zulte Waregem on 0.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, KRC Genk II have posted 0.94 PPG from 18 outings (4W 5D 9L).
On the road, Zulte Waregem have gone 5W 5D 8L from 18 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
KRC Genk II are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.58 scored and 2.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem in 72%.
Last 36 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KRC Genk II
Early Season
Zulte Waregem
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KRC Genk II and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
KRC Genk II have gone 8W 9D 19L in their last 36 games (0.92 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 7W 10D 19L in their last 36 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KRC Genk II at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Zulte Waregem's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KRC Genk II at home: 0.94 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Zulte Waregem have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
KRC Genk II's record when hosting Zulte Waregem specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
KRC Genk II
1
Draws
3
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Zulte Waregem?
From 4 meetings on record, KRC Genk II have won 0, Zulte Waregem have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did KRC Genk II and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2025, when Zulte Waregem 3-1 KRC Genk II.
Who has won more matches between KRC Genk II and Zulte Waregem?
Zulte Waregem have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KRC Genk II 50%, Zulte Waregem 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (KRC Genk II) and 61% (Zulte Waregem). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: KRC Genk II have failed to score in 39% of games; Zulte Waregem in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KRC Genk II home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KRC Genk II play Zulte Waregem?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of KRC Genk II's games and 67% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is KRC Genk II vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of KRC Genk II's matches and 61% of Zulte Waregem's.
Do KRC Genk II and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
KRC Genk II have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zulte Waregem cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over KRC Genk II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zulte Waregem beat KRC Genk II 2-4 at De Leunen, Regular Season - 5, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.06 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.95 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. KRC Genk II beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zulte Waregem outscored their 1.95 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 0.86 / defence 1.06 against Zulte Waregem attack 1.29 / defence 0.93, drawn from 26/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 20% | Draw 22% | Zulte Waregem 58%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 56%, Zulte Waregem 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KRC Genk II's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — KRC Genk II 0.92 PPG, Zulte Waregem 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zulte Waregem win broke the near-deadlock. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.