KRC Genk II 3-2 RSC Anderlecht II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RSC Anderlecht II at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 9 as KRC Genk II welcome RSC Anderlecht II to Cegeka Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
KRC Genk II — All Games: 1W 2D 5L from 8 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.62 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for KRC Genk II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Cegeka Arena, KRC Genk II have gone 1W 0D 3L this season (4 games, 0.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, RSC Anderlecht II have recorded 4W 4D 0L from 8 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for RSC Anderlecht II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RSC Anderlecht II away from home this season: 3W 1D 0L from 4 away games — 2.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 2.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form points away from home here. RSC Anderlecht II's 2.00 PPG return is 1.38 points per game ahead of KRC Genk II's 0.62 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
KRC Genk II in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
RSC Anderlecht II in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — KRC Genk II 62% and RSC Anderlecht II 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KRC Genk II 62% | RSC Anderlecht II 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KRC Genk II 1.04 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 2.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KRC Genk II attack 0.735 / defence 1.195 | RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.167 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.562. KRC Genk II's attack strength of 0.735 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 KRC Genk II games / 8 RSC Anderlecht II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KRC Genk II 16% | Draw 22% | RSC Anderlecht II 62%. Fair-value odds: KRC Genk II 6.25 | Draw 4.55 | RSC Anderlecht II 1.61. The model has a clear lean to RSC Anderlecht II (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, RSC Anderlecht II are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: KRC Genk II 25% | RSC Anderlecht II 75%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KRC Genk II 16% | Draw 22% | RSC Anderlecht II 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 59% | xG KRC Genk II 1.04 / RSC Anderlecht II 2.18 • Poisson strength factors: KRC Genk II attack 0.735 / def 1.195 | RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.167 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.562 • Poisson stance: RSC Anderlecht II (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
KRC Genk II xG
Expected Goals
2.18
RSC Anderlecht II xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II kick off?
KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II?
KRC Genk II 3 - 2 RSC Anderlecht II.
Where is KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II part of?
KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our statistical model gives KRC Genk II a 16% chance of winning, RSC Anderlecht II a 62% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making RSC Anderlecht II the favourite.
Will both teams score in KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both KRC Genk II and RSC Anderlecht II will score (BTTS).
Will KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and RSC Anderlecht II?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are KRC Genk II and RSC Anderlecht II in?
KRC Genk II (all comps): 1W-2D-5L in 8 | 0.62 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. RSC Anderlecht II (all comps): 4W-4D-0L in 8 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.12 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
KRC Genk II's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against RSC Anderlecht II's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, RSC Anderlecht II's attack versus KRC Genk II's defence, projects 2.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RSC Anderlecht II Win
16%
6.33
22%
4.47
62%
1.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.5%
Away win
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
KRC Genk II xG
Total xG
3.22
2.18
RSC Anderlecht II xG
6.33
16%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
1.62
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
11%
8.83
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
2%
55.91
22%
4.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are KRC Genk II and RSC Anderlecht II expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for KRC Genk II and 2.18 for RSC Anderlecht II, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
KRC Genk II come into this having played 8 games, going 1W 2D 5L for 0.62 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L. The sample for KRC Genk II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, RSC Anderlecht II sit at 2.00 PPG from 8 outings (4W 4D 0L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for RSC Anderlecht II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RSC Anderlecht II carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.38 PPG clear of KRC Genk II — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
KRC Genk II's home form reads 1W 0D 3L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.75 PPG return.
Away from home, RSC Anderlecht II have taken 2.50 points per game from 4 outings (3W 1D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 2.00 PPG overall record — RSC Anderlecht II travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RSC Anderlecht II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
KRC Genk II are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; RSC Anderlecht II are on 2.00 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; RSC Anderlecht II in 75%.
Last 8 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KRC Genk II
Blended
RSC Anderlecht II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KRC Genk II and RSC Anderlecht II in coming into this match?
KRC Genk II have gone 1W 2D 5L in their last 8 games (0.62 PPG), while RSC Anderlecht II have gone 4W 4D 0L in their last 8 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KRC Genk II at home or RSC Anderlecht II away?
RSC Anderlecht II's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KRC Genk II at home: 0.75 PPG; RSC Anderlecht II away: 2.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between KRC Genk II and RSC Anderlecht II runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Jan 2024, when KRC Genk II won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
KRC Genk II's record when hosting RSC Anderlecht II specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
KRC Genk II
1
Draws
3
RSC Anderlecht II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and RSC Anderlecht II?
From 8 meetings on record, KRC Genk II have won 4, RSC Anderlecht II have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did KRC Genk II and RSC Anderlecht II last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when RSC Anderlecht II 2-1 KRC Genk II.
Who has won more matches between KRC Genk II and RSC Anderlecht II?
KRC Genk II have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
KRC Genk II see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
RSC Anderlecht II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KRC Genk II 25%, RSC Anderlecht II 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for KRC Genk II and 75% for RSC Anderlecht II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: KRC Genk II have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KRC Genk II home games / RSC Anderlecht II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KRC Genk II play RSC Anderlecht II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of KRC Genk II's recent matches and 75% of RSC Anderlecht II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of KRC Genk II's matches and 75% of RSC Anderlecht II's.
Do KRC Genk II and RSC Anderlecht II tend to score early?
KRC Genk II have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, RSC Anderlecht II in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as KRC Genk II defy the odds to beat RSC Anderlecht II 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KRC Genk II beat RSC Anderlecht II 3-2 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.04 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 2.18 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. KRC Genk II beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 0.73 / defence 1.20 against RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.17 / defence 1.04, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 16% | Draw 22% | RSC Anderlecht II 62%, with RSC Anderlecht II to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a KRC Genk II win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 62%, RSC Anderlecht II 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KRC Genk II's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
RSC Anderlecht II's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, RSC Anderlecht II arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.62. Form was overturned, with KRC Genk II winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. RSC Anderlecht II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.