KRC Genk II 0-1 Patro Eisden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Patro Eisden at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Patro Eisden travel to De Leunen to take on KRC Genk II. The game is scheduled for Friday 8 December 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, KRC Genk II have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for KRC Genk II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KRC Genk II's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 games at De Leunen this term (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Patro Eisden stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Patro Eisden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Patro Eisden's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 1L across 7 road games this term (1.71 PPG). Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Patro Eisden's 1.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of KRC Genk II's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
KRC Genk II trading profile (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
Patro Eisden trading profile (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — KRC Genk II 79% and Patro Eisden 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KRC Genk II 71% | Patro Eisden 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KRC Genk II 1.09 xG and Patro Eisden 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KRC Genk II attack 1.002 / defence 1.303 | Patro Eisden attack 0.840 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.520. Data: 36 KRC Genk II games / 14 Patro Eisden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KRC Genk II 25% | Draw 24% | Patro Eisden 51%. Fair-value odds: KRC Genk II 4.00 | Draw 4.17 | Patro Eisden 1.96. Patro Eisden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Patro Eisden at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Patro Eisden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: KRC Genk II 60% | Patro Eisden 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: De Leunen • Kick-off: Friday 8 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KRC Genk II 25% | Draw 24% | Patro Eisden 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG KRC Genk II 1.09 / Patro Eisden 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: KRC Genk II attack 1.002 / def 1.303 | Patro Eisden attack 0.840 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.520 • Poisson stance: Patro Eisden (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
KRC Genk II xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Patro Eisden xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden kick off?
KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 8 December 2023 at De Leunen.
What was the final score in KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden?
KRC Genk II 0 - 1 Patro Eisden.
Where is KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden being played?
The match is being played at De Leunen.
What competition is KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden part of?
KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden?
Our statistical model gives KRC Genk II a 25% chance of winning, Patro Eisden a 51% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Patro Eisden the favourite.
Will both teams score in KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both KRC Genk II and Patro Eisden will score (BTTS).
Will KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Patro Eisden?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are KRC Genk II and Patro Eisden in?
KRC Genk II (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Patro Eisden (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from KRC Genk II's attack rating (1.00) and Patro Eisden's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Patro Eisden's attack versus KRC Genk II's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Patro Eisden Win
25%
4.00
24%
4.11
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
KRC Genk II xG
Total xG
2.76
1.67
Patro Eisden xG
4.00
25%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
19%
5.29
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
5%
21.16
17%
5.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.5 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are KRC Genk II and Patro Eisden expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for KRC Genk II and 1.67 for Patro Eisden, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
KRC Genk II's recent record stands at 4W 3D 7L from 14 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for KRC Genk II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Patro Eisden, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 4L across 14 games — 1.57 PPG, with D-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Patro Eisden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Patro Eisden by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over KRC Genk II heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, KRC Genk II have managed 1W 1D 5L from 7 games — 0.57 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.07 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Patro Eisden's away record stands at 3W 3D 1L across 7 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Patro Eisden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
KRC Genk II are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Patro Eisden are on 1.21 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II have seen both teams score in 79% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KRC Genk II
Blended
Patro Eisden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KRC Genk II and Patro Eisden in coming into this match?
KRC Genk II have gone 4W 3D 7L in their last 14 games (1.07 PPG), while Patro Eisden have gone 6W 4D 4L in their last 14 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KRC Genk II at home or Patro Eisden away?
Patro Eisden's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KRC Genk II at home: 0.57 PPG; Patro Eisden away: 1.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between KRC Genk II and Patro Eisden runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Sep 2025, when Patro Eisden won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
KRC Genk II's record when hosting Patro Eisden specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
KRC Genk II
2
Draws
4
Patro Eisden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Patro Eisden?
From 6 meetings on record, KRC Genk II have won 0, Patro Eisden have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did KRC Genk II and Patro Eisden last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Patro Eisden 4-4 KRC Genk II.
Who has won more matches between KRC Genk II and Patro Eisden?
Patro Eisden have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Patro Eisden see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KRC Genk II 71%, Patro Eisden 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for KRC Genk II and 57% for Patro Eisden. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Patro Eisden in 43%; Patro Eisden in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KRC Genk II home games / Patro Eisden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KRC Genk II play Patro Eisden?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of KRC Genk II's games and 57% of Patro Eisden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of KRC Genk II's matches and 57% of Patro Eisden's.
Do KRC Genk II and Patro Eisden tend to score early?
KRC Genk II have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Patro Eisden in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Patro Eisden edge out KRC Genk II 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Patro Eisden beat KRC Genk II 0-1 at De Leunen, Regular Season - 15, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.09 xG and Patro Eisden 1.67 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. KRC Genk II fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 1.00 / defence 1.30 against Patro Eisden attack 0.84 / defence 0.94, drawn from 36/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 25% | Draw 24% | Patro Eisden 51%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 71%, Patro Eisden 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KRC Genk II's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did not.
Patro Eisden's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.