KRC Genk II 0-4 Lommel United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lommel United at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KRC Genk II vs Lommel United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
KRC Genk II and Lommel United meet at De Leunen in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Friday 25 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
KRC Genk II's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for KRC Genk II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, KRC Genk II have posted 6W 2D 2L at De Leunen — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — KRC Genk II are significantly better at De Leunen than their overall form suggests.
Lommel United have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lommel United's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — KRC Genk II have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Lommel United in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Lommel United, who have claimed 4 wins from 6 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Lommel United have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
KRC Genk II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Lommel United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — KRC Genk II 68% and Lommel United 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KRC Genk II 66% | Lommel United 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KRC Genk II 1.32 xG and Lommel United 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KRC Genk II attack 0.950 / defence 1.033 | Lommel United attack 1.090 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.274. Data: 38 KRC Genk II games / 38 Lommel United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KRC Genk II 35% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 40%. Fair-value odds: KRC Genk II 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Lommel United 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lommel United at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lommel United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: KRC Genk II 60% | Lommel United 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KRC Genk II vs Lommel United | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: De Leunen • Kick-off: Friday 25 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KRC Genk II 35% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG KRC Genk II 1.32 / Lommel United 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: KRC Genk II attack 0.950 / def 1.033 | Lommel United attack 1.090 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
KRC Genk II xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Lommel United xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KRC Genk II vs Lommel United kick off?
KRC Genk II vs Lommel United kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 25 October 2024 at De Leunen.
What was the final score in KRC Genk II vs Lommel United?
KRC Genk II 0 - 4 Lommel United.
Where is KRC Genk II vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at De Leunen.
What competition is KRC Genk II vs Lommel United part of?
KRC Genk II vs Lommel United is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KRC Genk II vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives KRC Genk II a 35% chance of winning, Lommel United a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in KRC Genk II vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both KRC Genk II and Lommel United will score (BTTS).
Will KRC Genk II vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Lommel United?
Record (6 meetings): KRC Genk II 1W | Draws 1 | Lommel United 4W.
What form are KRC Genk II and Lommel United in?
KRC Genk II (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Lommel United (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about KRC Genk II vs Lommel United?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from KRC Genk II's attack rating (0.95) and Lommel United's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lommel United's attack (1.09x) against KRC Genk II's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
35%
2.89
25%
3.92
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
KRC Genk II xG
Total xG
2.75
1.43
Lommel United xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
8%
12.12
11%
9.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.1 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KRC Genk II vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are KRC Genk II and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for KRC Genk II and 1.43 for Lommel United, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for KRC Genk II vs Lommel United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, KRC Genk II have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 13W 7D 18L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for KRC Genk II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lommel United's form line: 15W 12D 11L from 38 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-D. The sample for Lommel United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for KRC Genk II against 1.50 for Lommel United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, KRC Genk II have posted 1.42 PPG from 19 outings (8W 3D 8L).
On the road, Lommel United have gone 7W 6D 6L from 19 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
KRC Genk II are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.58 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Lommel United in 66%.
Last 38 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KRC Genk II
Blended
Lommel United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KRC Genk II and Lommel United in coming into this match?
KRC Genk II have gone 13W 7D 18L in their last 38 games (1.21 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 15W 12D 11L in their last 38 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KRC Genk II at home or Lommel United away?
KRC Genk II's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KRC Genk II at home: 1.42 PPG; Lommel United away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lommel United won 0-4 on 25 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KRC Genk II have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lommel United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
KRC Genk II
1
Draws
7
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Lommel United?
From 10 meetings on record, KRC Genk II have won 2, Lommel United have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did KRC Genk II and Lommel United last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when KRC Genk II 0-2 Lommel United.
Who has won more matches between KRC Genk II and Lommel United?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 63% for KRC Genk II, 79% for Lommel United — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for KRC Genk II and 74% for Lommel United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KRC Genk II home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KRC Genk II play Lommel United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of KRC Genk II's games and 79% of Lommel United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is KRC Genk II vs Lommel United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of KRC Genk II's matches and 74% of Lommel United's.
Do KRC Genk II and Lommel United tend to score early?
KRC Genk II have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Lommel United in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lommel United run riot with a 0-4 hammering of KRC Genk II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lommel United beat KRC Genk II 0-4 at De Leunen, Regular Season - 9, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.32 xG and Lommel United 1.43 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. KRC Genk II fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Lommel United outscored their 1.43 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 0.95 / defence 1.03 against Lommel United attack 1.09 / defence 1.01, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 35% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 40%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 66%, Lommel United 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KRC Genk II's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Lommel United's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — KRC Genk II 1.21 PPG, Lommel United 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lommel United win broke the near-deadlock. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lommel United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.