KRC Genk II 0-4 Dender – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KRC Genk II at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this KRC Genk II vs Dender fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dender make the trip to Cegeka Arena to face KRC Genk II in Challenger Pro League, Relegation Round - 6. The match kicks off on Friday 7 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
KRC Genk II have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for KRC Genk II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Cegeka Arena, KRC Genk II have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dender (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dender, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dender away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for KRC Genk II against 1.10 for Dender. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — KRC Genk II register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Dender in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — KRC Genk II lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2023, ended 0–1 with Dender winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
KRC Genk II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Dender goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KRC Genk II 59% versus Dender 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KRC Genk II 56% | Dender 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KRC Genk II 1.65 xG and Dender 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KRC Genk II attack 0.923 / defence 1.168 | Dender attack 0.870 / defence 1.253. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.453. Dender bring a strong defensive rating of 1.253 — this is suppressing KRC Genk II's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 KRC Genk II games / 22 Dender games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KRC Genk II 42% | Draw 24% | Dender 34%. Fair-value odds: KRC Genk II 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Dender 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is KRC Genk II at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KRC Genk II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: KRC Genk II 70% | Dender 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KRC Genk II vs Dender | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Relegation Round - 6 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Friday 7 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KRC Genk II 42% | Draw 24% | Dender 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG KRC Genk II 1.65 / Dender 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: KRC Genk II attack 0.923 / def 1.168 | Dender attack 0.870 / def 1.253 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.453 • Poisson stance: KRC Genk II (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
KRC Genk II xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Dender xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KRC Genk II vs Dender kick off?
KRC Genk II vs Dender kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 7 April 2023 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in KRC Genk II vs Dender?
KRC Genk II 0 - 4 Dender.
Where is KRC Genk II vs Dender being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is KRC Genk II vs Dender part of?
KRC Genk II vs Dender is a Relegation Round - 6 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KRC Genk II vs Dender?
Our statistical model gives KRC Genk II a 42% chance of winning, Dender a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making KRC Genk II the favourite.
Will both teams score in KRC Genk II vs Dender?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both KRC Genk II and Dender will score (BTTS).
Will KRC Genk II vs Dender have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Dender?
Record (3 meetings): KRC Genk II 1W | Draws 0 | Dender 2W.
What form are KRC Genk II and Dender in?
KRC Genk II (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Dender (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from KRC Genk II's attack rating (0.92) and Dender's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dender's attack (0.87x) against KRC Genk II's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
KRC Genk II Win
42%
2.38
24%
4.23
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
KRC Genk II xG
Total xG
3.13
1.48
Dender xG
2.38
42%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
10%
10.41
7%
15.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.7 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KRC Genk II vs Dender?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are KRC Genk II and Dender expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for KRC Genk II and 1.48 for Dender, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for KRC Genk II vs Dender?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
KRC Genk II's recent record stands at 6W 7D 14L from 27 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for KRC Genk II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dender, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 14L across 27 games — 1.07 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Dender is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for KRC Genk II against 1.07 for Dender. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, KRC Genk II have managed 3W 5D 5L from 13 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dender's away record stands at 3W 5D 5L across 13 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
KRC Genk II are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Dender are on 1.19 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KRC Genk II
Blended
Dender
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KRC Genk II and Dender in coming into this match?
KRC Genk II have gone 6W 7D 14L in their last 27 games (0.93 PPG), while Dender have gone 8W 5D 14L in their last 27 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KRC Genk II at home or Dender away?
KRC Genk II's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KRC Genk II at home: 1.08 PPG; Dender away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: KRC Genk II have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dender won 0-4 on 7 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KRC Genk II have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Dender — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
KRC Genk II
0
Draws
3
Dender
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Dender?
From 6 meetings on record, KRC Genk II have won 3, Dender have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did KRC Genk II and Dender last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2024, when KRC Genk II 2-1 Dender.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KRC Genk II 62%, Dender 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (KRC Genk II) and 23% (Dender).
On the defensive side: KRC Genk II have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KRC Genk II home games / Dender away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KRC Genk II play Dender?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of KRC Genk II's games and 62% of Dender's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is KRC Genk II vs Dender usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of KRC Genk II's recent games and 23% of Dender's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KRC Genk II and Dender tend to score early?
KRC Genk II have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Dender in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dender run riot with a 0-4 hammering of KRC Genk II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dender beat KRC Genk II 0-4 at Cegeka Arena, Relegation Round - 6, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.65 xG and Dender 1.48 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. KRC Genk II fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Dender outscored their 1.48 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 0.92 / defence 1.17 against Dender attack 0.87 / defence 1.25, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 42% | Draw 24% | Dender 34%, with KRC Genk II to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Dender win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 56%, Dender 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KRC Genk II's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dender's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — KRC Genk II 0.93 PPG, Dender 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dender win broke the near-deadlock. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dender (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.