KRC Genk II 0-0 Deinze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KRC Genk II at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this KRC Genk II vs Deinze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
KRC Genk II host Deinze at Cegeka Arena in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 November 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, KRC Genk II stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for KRC Genk II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KRC Genk II's home record at Cegeka Arena: 2W 0D 4L from 6 Challenger Pro League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — KRC Genk II are significantly better at Cegeka Arena than their overall form suggests.
Deinze — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Deinze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Deinze have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Deinze — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, KRC Genk II have won 0, Deinze 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2022, ended 2–3 with Deinze winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
KRC Genk II in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Deinze in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KRC Genk II 67% versus Deinze 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KRC Genk II 75% | Deinze 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KRC Genk II 1.29 xG and Deinze 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KRC Genk II attack 0.846 / defence 1.246 | Deinze attack 0.691 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.416. Data: 12 KRC Genk II games / 40 Deinze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KRC Genk II 38% | Draw 27% | Deinze 35%. Fair-value odds: KRC Genk II 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Deinze 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates KRC Genk II as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Deinze (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on KRC Genk II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: KRC Genk II 50% | Deinze 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KRC Genk II vs Deinze | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KRC Genk II 38% | Draw 27% | Deinze 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG KRC Genk II 1.29 / Deinze 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: KRC Genk II attack 0.846 / def 1.246 | Deinze attack 0.691 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.416 • Poisson stance: KRC Genk II (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
KRC Genk II xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Deinze xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KRC Genk II vs Deinze kick off?
KRC Genk II vs Deinze kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in KRC Genk II vs Deinze?
KRC Genk II 0 - 0 Deinze.
Where is KRC Genk II vs Deinze being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is KRC Genk II vs Deinze part of?
KRC Genk II vs Deinze is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KRC Genk II vs Deinze?
Our statistical model gives KRC Genk II a 38% chance of winning, Deinze a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making KRC Genk II the favourite.
Will both teams score in KRC Genk II vs Deinze?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both KRC Genk II and Deinze will score (BTTS).
Will KRC Genk II vs Deinze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Deinze?
Record (1 meetings): KRC Genk II 0W | Draws 0 | Deinze 1W.
What form are KRC Genk II and Deinze in?
KRC Genk II (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Deinze (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
KRC Genk II's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Deinze's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Deinze's attack versus KRC Genk II's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KRC Genk II Win
38%
2.61
27%
3.71
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
KRC Genk II xG
Total xG
2.51
1.22
Deinze xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
11%
8.84
10%
10.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.8 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KRC Genk II vs Deinze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are KRC Genk II and Deinze expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for KRC Genk II and 1.22 for Deinze, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for KRC Genk II vs Deinze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
KRC Genk II come into this having played 12 games, going 2W 2D 8L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for KRC Genk II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Deinze sit at 1.17 PPG from 12 outings (4W 2D 6L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Deinze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Deinze carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of KRC Genk II — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
KRC Genk II's home form reads 2W 0D 4L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Deinze have taken 0.67 points per game from 6 outings (1W 1D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Deinze's season.
The Goals Picture
KRC Genk II are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game recently; Deinze are on 1.25 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KRC Genk II
Blended
Deinze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KRC Genk II and Deinze in coming into this match?
KRC Genk II have gone 2W 2D 8L in their last 12 games (0.67 PPG), while Deinze have gone 4W 2D 6L in their last 12 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KRC Genk II at home or Deinze away?
KRC Genk II's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KRC Genk II at home: 1.00 PPG; Deinze away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between KRC Genk II and Deinze runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 October 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
KRC Genk II's record when hosting Deinze specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
KRC Genk II
1
Draws
4
Deinze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Deinze?
From 7 meetings on record, KRC Genk II have won 2, Deinze have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did KRC Genk II and Deinze last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2024, when Deinze 1-0 KRC Genk II.
Who has won more matches between KRC Genk II and Deinze?
Deinze have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KRC Genk II 50%, Deinze 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (KRC Genk II) and 33% (Deinze).
On the defensive side: Deinze in 33%; KRC Genk II have failed to score in 50% of games; Deinze in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KRC Genk II home games / Deinze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KRC Genk II play Deinze?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of KRC Genk II's recent matches and 33% of Deinze's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KRC Genk II vs Deinze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of KRC Genk II's recent games and 33% of Deinze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KRC Genk II and Deinze tend to score early?
KRC Genk II have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Deinze in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at KRC Genk II's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KRC Genk II and Deinze finished level at 0-0 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.29 xG and Deinze 1.22 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. KRC Genk II fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Deinze landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 0.85 / defence 1.25 against Deinze attack 0.69 / defence 1.02, drawn from 12/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 38% | Draw 27% | Deinze 35%, with KRC Genk II to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 75%, Deinze 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KRC Genk II's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Deinze's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Deinze arrived the stronger side — 1.17 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Deinze (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.