KRC Genk II 1-2 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beerschot VA at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Beerschot VA make the trip to Cegeka Arena to face KRC Genk II in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
KRC Genk II have collected 0.89 PPG across 9 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 2W 2D 5L. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.44 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for KRC Genk II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KRC Genk II's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 3L across 5 games at Cegeka Arena this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Beerschot VA (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Beerschot VA have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Beerschot VA are 0.51 PPG clear of KRC Genk II in recent Challenger Pro League fixtures (1.40 vs 0.89). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
KRC Genk II — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Beerschot VA — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — KRC Genk II 67% and Beerschot VA 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KRC Genk II 67% | Beerschot VA 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KRC Genk II 1.42 xG and Beerschot VA 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KRC Genk II attack 0.895 / defence 1.208 | Beerschot VA attack 0.868 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.504. Data: 9 KRC Genk II games / 9 Beerschot VA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KRC Genk II 33% | Draw 28% | Beerschot VA 39%. Fair-value odds: KRC Genk II 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Beerschot VA 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beerschot VA as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beerschot VA if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: KRC Genk II 40% | Beerschot VA 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KRC Genk II 33% | Draw 28% | Beerschot VA 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG KRC Genk II 1.42 / Beerschot VA 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: KRC Genk II attack 0.895 / def 1.208 | Beerschot VA attack 0.868 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.504 • Poisson stance: Beerschot VA (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
KRC Genk II xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Beerschot VA xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA kick off?
KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA?
KRC Genk II 1 - 2 Beerschot VA.
Where is KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA part of?
KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives KRC Genk II a 33% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Beerschot VA the favourite.
Will both teams score in KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both KRC Genk II and Beerschot VA will score (BTTS).
Will KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Beerschot VA?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are KRC Genk II and Beerschot VA in?
KRC Genk II (all comps): 2W-2D-5L in 9 | 0.89 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Beerschot VA (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates KRC Genk II's attack at 0.90x the league average against Beerschot VA's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beerschot VA's attack (0.87x) against KRC Genk II's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beerschot VA Win
33%
3.07
28%
3.55
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
KRC Genk II xG
Total xG
3.00
1.58
Beerschot VA xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
21%
4.84
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
7%
14.87
9%
10.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.2 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are KRC Genk II and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for KRC Genk II and 1.58 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
KRC Genk II's recent record stands at 2W 2D 5L from 9 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for KRC Genk II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beerschot VA, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 3L across 9 games — 1.56 PPG, with L-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beerschot VA by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over KRC Genk II heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, KRC Genk II have managed 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beerschot VA's away record stands at 2W 1D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beerschot VA come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
KRC Genk II are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KRC Genk II
Blended
Beerschot VA
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KRC Genk II and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
KRC Genk II have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 games (0.89 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 4W 2D 3L in their last 9 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KRC Genk II at home or Beerschot VA away?
Beerschot VA's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KRC Genk II at home: 0.75 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 1.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Beerschot VA have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KRC Genk II have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Beerschot VA — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
KRC Genk II
0
Draws
6
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Beerschot VA?
From 6 meetings on record, KRC Genk II have won 0, Beerschot VA have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did KRC Genk II and Beerschot VA last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Beerschot VA 1-0 KRC Genk II.
Who has won more matches between KRC Genk II and Beerschot VA?
Beerschot VA have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
KRC Genk II see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KRC Genk II 25%, Beerschot VA 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for KRC Genk II and 75% for Beerschot VA. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: KRC Genk II have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KRC Genk II home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KRC Genk II play Beerschot VA?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of KRC Genk II's recent matches and 75% of Beerschot VA's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of KRC Genk II's matches and 75% of Beerschot VA's.
Do KRC Genk II and Beerschot VA tend to score early?
KRC Genk II have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Beerschot VA in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beerschot VA edge out KRC Genk II 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beerschot VA beat KRC Genk II 1-2 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.42 xG and Beerschot VA 1.58 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 0.90 / defence 1.21 against Beerschot VA attack 0.87 / defence 1.12, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 33% | Draw 28% | Beerschot VA 39%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 67%, Beerschot VA 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KRC Genk II's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beerschot VA arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.89. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.