K. Lierse S.K. 4-0 Francs Borains – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates K. Lierse S.K. at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Francs Borains make the trip to Herman Vanderpoortenstadion to face K. Lierse S.K. in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 October 2024 at 18:15 UTC.
Form
K. Lierse S.K. (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. K. Lierse S.K. have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
K. Lierse S.K.'s home record at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Francs Borains's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Francs Borains have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Francs Borains have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward K. Lierse S.K.. A 0.80 PPG lead over Francs Borains (1.70 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — K. Lierse S.K. register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Francs Borains in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — K. Lierse S.K. lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 3–1 with K. Lierse S.K. winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
K. Lierse S.K. half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Francs Borains half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — K. Lierse S.K. 64% versus Francs Borains 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (K. Lierse S.K. 69% | Francs Borains 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects K. Lierse S.K. 1.84 xG and Francs Borains 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.209 / defence 0.928 | Francs Borains attack 1.015 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.363. Data: 36 K. Lierse S.K. games / 36 Francs Borains games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 50% | Draw 24% | Francs Borains 26%. Fair-value odds: K. Lierse S.K. 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Francs Borains 3.85. K. Lierse S.K. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, K. Lierse S.K. are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on K. Lierse S.K. if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: K. Lierse S.K. 80% | Francs Borains 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Herman Vanderpoortenstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 50% | Draw 24% | Francs Borains 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG K. Lierse S.K. 1.84 / Francs Borains 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.209 / def 0.928 | Francs Borains attack 1.015 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: K. Lierse S.K. (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Francs Borains xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains kick off?
K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What was the final score in K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains?
K. Lierse S.K. 4 - 0 Francs Borains.
Where is K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains being played?
The match is being played at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What competition is K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains part of?
K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains?
Our statistical model gives K. Lierse S.K. a 50% chance of winning, Francs Borains a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making K. Lierse S.K. the favourite.
Will both teams score in K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both K. Lierse S.K. and Francs Borains will score (BTTS).
Will K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and Francs Borains?
Record (2 meetings): K. Lierse S.K. 1W | Draws 0 | Francs Borains 1W.
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and Francs Borains in?
K. Lierse S.K. (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Francs Borains (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates K. Lierse S.K.'s attack at 1.21x the league average against Francs Borains's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Francs Borains's attack (1.01x) against K. Lierse S.K.'s defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
K. Lierse S.K. Win
50%
2.01
24%
4.15
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Total xG
3.13
1.28
Francs Borains xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
16%
6.32
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
4%
24.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.4 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are K. Lierse S.K. and Francs Borains expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for K. Lierse S.K. and 1.28 for Francs Borains, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
K. Lierse S.K. come into this having played 36 games, going 13W 6D 17L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for K. Lierse S.K., so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Francs Borains sit at 1.06 PPG from 36 outings (11W 5D 20L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Francs Borains, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for K. Lierse S.K. against 1.06 for Francs Borains. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
K. Lierse S.K.'s home form reads 8W 2D 8L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Francs Borains have taken 1.11 points per game from 18 outings (6W 2D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
K. Lierse S.K. are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Francs Borains are on 1.22 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: K. Lierse S.K. have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
K. Lierse S.K.
Early Season
Francs Borains
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and Francs Borains in coming into this match?
K. Lierse S.K. have gone 13W 6D 17L in their last 36 games (1.25 PPG), while Francs Borains have gone 11W 5D 20L in their last 36 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — K. Lierse S.K. at home or Francs Borains away?
K. Lierse S.K.'s home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — K. Lierse S.K. at home: 1.44 PPG; Francs Borains away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: K. Lierse S.K. won 4-0 on 6 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, K. Lierse S.K. have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Francs Borains — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
K. Lierse S.K.
0
Draws
3
Francs Borains
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and Francs Borains?
From 6 meetings on record, K. Lierse S.K. have won 3, Francs Borains have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did K. Lierse S.K. and Francs Borains last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when K. Lierse S.K. 0-2 Francs Borains.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 72% for K. Lierse S.K., 61% for Francs Borains — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for K. Lierse S.K. and 67% for Francs Borains. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Francs Borains in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = K. Lierse S.K. home games / Francs Borains away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when K. Lierse S.K. play Francs Borains?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of K. Lierse S.K.'s games and 61% of Francs Borains's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of K. Lierse S.K.'s matches and 67% of Francs Borains's.
Do K. Lierse S.K. and Francs Borains tend to score early?
K. Lierse S.K. have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Francs Borains in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant K. Lierse S.K. run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Francs Borains.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
K. Lierse S.K. beat Francs Borains 4-0 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting K. Lierse S.K. 1.84 xG and Francs Borains 1.28 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. K. Lierse S.K. beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Francs Borains landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.21 / defence 0.93 against Francs Borains attack 1.01 / defence 1.11, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it K. Lierse S.K. 50% | Draw 24% | Francs Borains 26%, with K. Lierse S.K. to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (K. Lierse S.K. 69%, Francs Borains 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Francs Borains's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — K. Lierse S.K. 1.25 PPG, Francs Borains 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the K. Lierse S.K. win broke the near-deadlock. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line. Francs Borains (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.