Francs Borains 2-1 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zulte Waregem at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Francs Borains vs Zulte Waregem encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Francs Borains host Zulte Waregem at Stade Robert Urbain in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 February 2024 at 18:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Francs Borains have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Francs Borains's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stade Robert Urbain this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Zulte Waregem — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zulte Waregem's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form points away from home here. Zulte Waregem's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Francs Borains's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Francs Borains, 0 for Zulte Waregem and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2023, ended 3–1 with Francs Borains winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Francs Borains trading profile (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Zulte Waregem trading profile (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Francs Borains 41% versus Zulte Waregem 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Francs Borains 54% | Zulte Waregem 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 1.10 xG and Zulte Waregem 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 0.938 / defence 1.108 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.228 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.194 / away 1.466. Zulte Waregem have an above-average attack strength of 1.228 — the away xG of 2.00 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 22 Francs Borains games / 22 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Francs Borains 20% | Draw 21% | Zulte Waregem 58%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 5.00 | Draw 4.76 | Zulte Waregem 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Zulte Waregem (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zulte Waregem as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Francs Borains 30% | Zulte Waregem 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Francs Borains vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade Robert Urbain • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Feb 2024, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Francs Borains 20% | Draw 21% | Zulte Waregem 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 58% | xG Francs Borains 1.10 / Zulte Waregem 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Francs Borains attack 0.938 / def 1.108 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.228 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.194 / away 1.466 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Francs Borains xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Zulte Waregem xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Francs Borains vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
Francs Borains vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Stade Robert Urbain.
What was the final score in Francs Borains vs Zulte Waregem?
Francs Borains 2 - 1 Zulte Waregem.
Where is Francs Borains vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Urbain.
What competition is Francs Borains vs Zulte Waregem part of?
Francs Borains vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Francs Borains vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives Francs Borains a 20% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 58% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in Francs Borains vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Francs Borains and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will Francs Borains vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and Zulte Waregem?
Record (1 meetings): Francs Borains 1W | Draws 0 | Zulte Waregem 0W.
What form are Francs Borains and Zulte Waregem in?
Francs Borains (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Francs Borains's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Zulte Waregem's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Zulte Waregem's attack versus Francs Borains's defence, projects 2.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
20%
4.90
21%
4.66
58%
1.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Francs Borains xG
Total xG
3.09
2.00
Zulte Waregem xG
4.90
20%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
1.72
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
14%
7.35
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
3%
36.00
19%
5.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Francs Borains vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Francs Borains and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Francs Borains and 2.00 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Francs Borains vs Zulte Waregem?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 22 outings, Francs Borains have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 7W 2D 13L record — W-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Francs Borains is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zulte Waregem's form line: 12W 3D 7L from 22 games, 1.77 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-W. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Zulte Waregem are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Francs Borains.
Venue Form
On home soil, Francs Borains have posted 1.27 PPG from 11 outings (4W 2D 5L).
On the road, Zulte Waregem have gone 9W 1D 1L from 11 away games — 2.55 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.77 PPG overall record — Zulte Waregem travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zulte Waregem come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Francs Borains are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.77 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Francs Borains
Blended
Zulte Waregem
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Francs Borains and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
Francs Borains have gone 7W 2D 13L in their last 22 games (1.05 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 12W 3D 7L in their last 22 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Francs Borains at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Zulte Waregem's away record (2.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Francs Borains at home: 1.27 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 2.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Francs Borains's record when hosting Zulte Waregem specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Francs Borains
1
Draws
1
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and Zulte Waregem?
From 4 meetings on record, Francs Borains have won 2, Zulte Waregem have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Francs Borains and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Francs Borains 1-3 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between Francs Borains and Zulte Waregem?
Francs Borains have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Francs Borains see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Francs Borains 36%, Zulte Waregem 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Francs Borains) and 73% (Zulte Waregem). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Francs Borains keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Zulte Waregem in 46%; Francs Borains have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Francs Borains home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Francs Borains play Zulte Waregem?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Francs Borains's recent matches and 54% of Zulte Waregem's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Francs Borains vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Francs Borains's matches and 73% of Zulte Waregem's.
Do Francs Borains and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
Francs Borains have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Francs Borains defy the odds to beat Zulte Waregem 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Francs Borains beat Zulte Waregem 2-1 at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 23, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 1.10 xG and Zulte Waregem 2.00 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Francs Borains beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zulte Waregem landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 0.94 / defence 1.11 against Zulte Waregem attack 1.23 / defence 0.98, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 20% | Draw 21% | Zulte Waregem 58%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Francs Borains win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 54%, Zulte Waregem 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Francs Borains's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zulte Waregem arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Francs Borains winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Francs Borains (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.64 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.