Francs Borains 0-0 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Francs Borains at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Francs Borains face SK Beveren.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

Francs Borains welcome SK Beveren to Stade Robert Urbain in Challenger Pro League (matchday 18). Kick-off is Saturday 18 January 2025 at 19:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Francs Borains have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Francs Borains's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.10 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Looking at their last 10 matches, SK Beveren stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

SK Beveren's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Francs Borains at 1.10 PPG versus SK Beveren's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Francs Borains, 2 for SK Beveren and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2024, ended Francs Borains 0–4 SK Beveren — a SK Beveren win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Francs Borains trading profile (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

SK Beveren trading profile (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Francs Borains 54% versus SK Beveren 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Francs Borains 67% | SK Beveren 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 1.44 xG and SK Beveren 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 0.941 / defence 1.210 | SK Beveren attack 0.778 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.370. SK Beveren's attack rating of 0.778 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.29. Francs Borains's defence rating of 1.210 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SK Beveren's projected output up. Data: built from Francs Borains's last 46 games and SK Beveren's last 47.

Result probabilities: Francs Borains 41% | Draw 26% | SK Beveren 34%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 2.46 | Draw 3.91 | SK Beveren 2.96. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Francs Borains as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Francs Borains offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Francs Borains's last 10 home games and SK Beveren's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Francs Borains 70% (last 10 home games) | SK Beveren 40% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights