Francs Borains 0-2 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Francs Borains at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Francs Borains and Beerschot VA meet at Stade Robert Urbain in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Francs Borains (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Francs Borains's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stade Robert Urbain this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Robert Urbain. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Beerschot VA's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beerschot VA's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Francs Borains against 1.20 for Beerschot VA. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Across the last 3 meetings, Beerschot VA have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Francs Borains's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 1–4 with Beerschot VA winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Beerschot VA have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Francs Borains — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Beerschot VA — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Francs Borains 47% versus Beerschot VA 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Francs Borains 51% | Beerschot VA 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 0.92 xG and Beerschot VA 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 0.702 / defence 0.773 | Beerschot VA attack 0.836 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.349. Francs Borains's attack strength of 0.702 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Francs Borains's defence rating of 0.773 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Francs Borains games / 25 Beerschot VA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Francs Borains 35% | Draw 33% | Beerschot VA 32%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 2.86 | Draw 3.03 | Beerschot VA 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Beerschot VA's lower xG of 0.87 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Francs Borains as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Francs Borains if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.79 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Francs Borains 10% | Beerschot VA 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade Robert Urbain • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Francs Borains 35% | Draw 33% | Beerschot VA 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Francs Borains 0.92 / Beerschot VA 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Francs Borains attack 0.702 / def 0.773 | Beerschot VA attack 0.836 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Francs Borains (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Francs Borains xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Beerschot VA xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA kick off?
Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Stade Robert Urbain.
What was the final score in Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA?
Francs Borains 0 - 2 Beerschot VA.
Where is Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Urbain.
What competition is Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA part of?
Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives Francs Borains a 35% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Francs Borains the favourite.
Will both teams score in Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Francs Borains and Beerschot VA will score (BTTS).
Will Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and Beerschot VA?
Record (3 meetings): Francs Borains 0W | Draws 0 | Beerschot VA 3W.
What form are Francs Borains and Beerschot VA in?
Francs Borains (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Beerschot VA (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Francs Borains's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Beerschot VA's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. Flip it around — Beerschot VA's attack (0.84x) against Francs Borains's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 53/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Francs Borains Win
35%
2.88
33%
3.03
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Francs Borains xG
Total xG
1.79
0.87
Beerschot VA xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.86
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
15%
6.88
13%
7.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 14.6 | 6.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.4%.
How many goals are Francs Borains and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Francs Borains and 0.87 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Francs Borains's recent record stands at 15W 11D 27L from 53 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Francs Borains is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beerschot VA, meanwhile, have gone 18W 14D 21L across 53 games — 1.28 PPG, with D-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Francs Borains against 1.28 for Beerschot VA. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Francs Borains have managed 7W 6D 13L from 26 games — 1.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beerschot VA's away record stands at 7W 4D 15L across 26 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Francs Borains are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 1.23 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Francs Borains
Blended
Beerschot VA
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Francs Borains and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
Francs Borains have gone 15W 11D 27L in their last 53 games (1.06 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 18W 14D 21L in their last 53 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Francs Borains at home or Beerschot VA away?
Francs Borains's home record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Francs Borains at home: 1.04 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Beerschot VA have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beerschot VA won 4-1 on 20 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Francs Borains have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Beerschot VA — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Francs Borains
0
Draws
4
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and Beerschot VA?
From 4 meetings on record, Francs Borains have won 0, Beerschot VA have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Francs Borains and Beerschot VA last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Francs Borains 0-2 Beerschot VA.
Who has won more matches between Francs Borains and Beerschot VA?
Beerschot VA have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Francs Borains 42%, Beerschot VA 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Francs Borains) and 58% (Beerschot VA).
On the defensive side: Francs Borains keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Francs Borains have failed to score in 38% of games; Beerschot VA in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Francs Borains home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Francs Borains play Beerschot VA?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Francs Borains's recent matches and 54% of Beerschot VA's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Francs Borains vs Beerschot VA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Francs Borains's recent games and 58% of Beerschot VA's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Francs Borains and Beerschot VA tend to score early?
Francs Borains have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Beerschot VA in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beerschot VA cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Francs Borains.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beerschot VA beat Francs Borains 0-2 at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 27, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 0.92 xG and Beerschot VA 0.87 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Francs Borains fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Beerschot VA outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 0.70 / defence 0.77 against Beerschot VA attack 0.84 / defence 0.98, drawn from 53/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 35% | Draw 33% | Beerschot VA 32%, with Francs Borains to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Beerschot VA win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 51%, Beerschot VA 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Francs Borains's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Francs Borains 1.06 PPG, Beerschot VA 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beerschot VA win broke the near-deadlock. Francs Borains (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.