Excelsior Virton 1-1 Dender – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Excelsior Virton at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior Virton vs Dender encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Yvan Georges plays host to Excelsior Virton versus Dender in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Sunday 4 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Excelsior Virton have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Excelsior Virton have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Excelsior Virton at Stade Yvan Georges this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Dender's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.33 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Dender have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Excelsior Virton's 1.00 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Dender's 0.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Excelsior Virton — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
Dender — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Excelsior Virton 100% and Dender 33% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Excelsior Virton 33% | Dender 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior Virton 1.37 xG and Dender 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior Virton attack 0.938 / defence 0.989 | Dender attack 0.690 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.493. Data: 31 Excelsior Virton games / 3 Dender games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Excelsior Virton 45% | Draw 27% | Dender 28%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior Virton 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Dender 3.57. Excelsior Virton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Excelsior Virton are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Excelsior Virton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior Virton 30% | Dender 33% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior Virton vs Dender | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade Yvan Georges • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior Virton 45% | Draw 27% | Dender 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Excelsior Virton 1.37 / Dender 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior Virton attack 0.938 / def 0.989 | Dender attack 0.690 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.493 • Poisson stance: Excelsior Virton (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Excelsior Virton xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Dender xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior Virton vs Dender kick off?
Excelsior Virton vs Dender kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at Stade Yvan Georges.
What was the final score in Excelsior Virton vs Dender?
Excelsior Virton 1 - 1 Dender.
Where is Excelsior Virton vs Dender being played?
The match is being played at Stade Yvan Georges.
What competition is Excelsior Virton vs Dender part of?
Excelsior Virton vs Dender is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior Virton vs Dender?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior Virton a 45% chance of winning, Dender a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Excelsior Virton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior Virton vs Dender?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Excelsior Virton and Dender will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior Virton vs Dender have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior Virton and Dender?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Excelsior Virton and Dender in?
Excelsior Virton (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Dender (all comps): 0W-0D-3L in 3 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Excelsior Virton's attack at 0.94x the league average against Dender's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dender's attack (0.69x) against Excelsior Virton's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
The sample (31/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Virton Win
45%
2.23
27%
3.68
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Excelsior Virton xG
Total xG
2.39
1.02
Dender xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
16%
6.18
7%
14.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.8 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior Virton vs Dender?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Excelsior Virton and Dender expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Excelsior Virton and 1.02 for Dender, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior Virton vs Dender?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Excelsior Virton's recent record stands at 0W 3D 0L from 3 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Excelsior Virton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dender, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 3L across 3 games — 0.00 PPG, with L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dender, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Excelsior Virton by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dender heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Excelsior Virton are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Dender are on 0.33 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior Virton have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior Virton
Early Season
Dender
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior Virton and Dender in coming into this match?
Excelsior Virton have gone 0W 3D 0L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Dender have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Dender go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Excelsior Virton have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dender — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Excelsior Virton
1
Draws
2
Dender
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior Virton and Dender?
From 4 meetings on record, Excelsior Virton have won 1, Dender have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior Virton and Dender last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2023, when Excelsior Virton 0-1 Dender.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior Virton and Dender?
Dender have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Excelsior Virton see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Excelsior Virton, 33% for Dender — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Excelsior Virton and 33% for Dender.
On the defensive side: Dender in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior Virton home games / Dender away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior Virton play Dender?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Excelsior Virton's games and 33% of Dender's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior Virton vs Dender usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Excelsior Virton's recent games and 33% of Dender's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Excelsior Virton and Dender tend to score early?
Excelsior Virton have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Dender in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Excelsior Virton and Dender share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior Virton and Dender finished level at 1-1 at Stade Yvan Georges, Regular Season - 4, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior Virton 1.37 xG and Dender 1.02 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior Virton attack 0.94 / defence 0.99 against Dender attack 0.69 / defence 1.05, drawn from 31/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior Virton 45% | Draw 27% | Dender 28%, with Excelsior Virton to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior Virton 33%, Dender 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior Virton's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Dender's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Excelsior Virton arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dender conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.