Dender 1-0 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dender at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dender vs SK Beveren fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dender host SK Beveren at DENDER Football Complex in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 February 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dender — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Dender, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dender have posted 4W 4D 2L at DENDER Football Complex — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SK Beveren stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, SK Beveren have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dender at 1.80 PPG versus SK Beveren's 2.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, SK Beveren have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Dender.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2023, ended 2–3 with SK Beveren winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SK Beveren have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 5.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Dender in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
SK Beveren in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dender 58% versus SK Beveren 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dender 47% | SK Beveren 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dender 1.38 xG and SK Beveren 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dender attack 1.246 / defence 0.804 | SK Beveren attack 0.969 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.206 / away 1.468. Data: 43 Dender games / 43 SK Beveren games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dender 42% | Draw 27% | SK Beveren 31%. Fair-value odds: Dender 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | SK Beveren 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dender at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dender offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 5.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Dender 60% | SK Beveren 30%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dender vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: DENDER Football Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dender 42% | Draw 27% | SK Beveren 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Dender 1.38 / SK Beveren 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Dender attack 1.246 / def 0.804 | SK Beveren attack 0.969 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.206 / away 1.468 • Poisson stance: Dender (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Dender xG
Expected Goals
1.14
SK Beveren xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dender vs SK Beveren kick off?
Dender vs SK Beveren kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at DENDER Football Complex.
What was the final score in Dender vs SK Beveren?
Dender 1 - 0 SK Beveren.
Where is Dender vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at DENDER Football Complex.
What competition is Dender vs SK Beveren part of?
Dender vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Dender vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives Dender a 42% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dender the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dender vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Dender and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will Dender vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and SK Beveren?
Record (3 meetings): Dender 0W | Draws 0 | SK Beveren 3W.
What form are Dender and SK Beveren in?
Dender (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. SK Beveren (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Dender's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against SK Beveren's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, SK Beveren's attack versus Dender's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dender Win
42%
2.37
27%
3.75
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Dender xG
Total xG
2.52
1.14
SK Beveren xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
13%
7.43
8%
12.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.7 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dender vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Dender and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Dender and 1.14 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Dender vs SK Beveren?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dender come into this having played 53 games, going 20W 14D 19L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-L. The sample for Dender is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SK Beveren sit at 1.94 PPG from 53 outings (30W 13D 10L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SK Beveren carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Dender — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Dender's home form reads 10W 5D 11L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, SK Beveren have taken 1.73 points per game from 26 outings (12W 9D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Dender are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 2.04 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dender
Blended
SK Beveren
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dender and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
Dender have gone 20W 14D 19L in their last 53 games (1.40 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 30W 13D 10L in their last 53 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dender at home or SK Beveren away?
SK Beveren's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dender at home: 1.35 PPG; SK Beveren away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Dender or SK Beveren been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dender have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, SK Beveren in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2022, when SK Beveren won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dender's record when hosting SK Beveren specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dender
0
Draws
3
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and SK Beveren?
From 4 meetings on record, Dender have won 1, SK Beveren have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dender and SK Beveren last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Dender 1-0 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between Dender and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dender 54%, SK Beveren 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Dender) and 62% (SK Beveren). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren in 42%; Dender have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dender home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dender play SK Beveren?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Dender's recent matches and 46% of SK Beveren's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dender vs SK Beveren usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Dender's matches and 62% of SK Beveren's.
Do Dender and SK Beveren tend to score early?
Dender have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, SK Beveren in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dender edge out SK Beveren 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dender beat SK Beveren 1-0 at DENDER Football Complex, Regular Season - 22, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dender 1.38 xG and SK Beveren 1.14 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SK Beveren landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dender attack 1.25 / defence 0.80 against SK Beveren attack 0.97 / defence 0.92, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dender 42% | Draw 27% | SK Beveren 31%, with Dender to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dender 47%, SK Beveren 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dender's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
SK Beveren's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.40. Form was overturned, with Dender winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dender (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. SK Beveren (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.