Dender 2-0 Francs Borains – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dender at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dender vs Francs Borains encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dender and Francs Borains meet at DENDER Football Complex in Challenger Pro League (matchday 14). This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 5 December 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Dender (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Dender have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Francs Borains's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Francs Borains have gone 1W 0D 5L in their last 6 away fixtures (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Dender. A 0.90 PPG lead over Francs Borains (1.60 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Dender half-time and goal-timing data (last 13 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Francs Borains half-time and goal-timing data (last 13 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dender 77% versus Francs Borains 31%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dender 46% | Francs Borains 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dender 1.83 xG and Francs Borains 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dender attack 1.170 / defence 0.968 | Francs Borains attack 0.569 / defence 1.345. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 1.551. Francs Borains's defence rating of 1.345 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dender's projected output up. Francs Borains's attack rating of 0.569 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.85. Data: built from Dender's last 35 games and Francs Borains's last 13.
Result probabilities: Dender 61% | Draw 22% | Francs Borains 17%. Fair-value odds: Dender 1.65 | Draw 4.46 | Francs Borains 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Dender (61%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dender are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Dender 60% (last 10 home games) | Francs Borains 33% (last 6 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dender vs Francs Borains | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 14 | Venue: DENDER Football Complex • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 December 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dender 61% | Draw 22% | Francs Borains 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Dender 1.83 / Francs Borains 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Dender attack 1.170 / def 0.968 | Francs Borains attack 0.569 / def 1.345 | league avg home 1.166 / away 1.551 • Poisson stance: Dender (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Dender xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Francs Borains xG
48%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dender vs Francs Borains FAQs
What time does Dender vs Francs Borains kick off?
Dender vs Francs Borains kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Tuesday 5 December 2023 at DENDER Football Complex.
What was the final score in Dender vs Francs Borains?
Dender 2 - 0 Francs Borains.
Where is Dender vs Francs Borains being played?
The match is being played at DENDER Football Complex.
What competition is Dender vs Francs Borains part of?
Dender vs Francs Borains is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 14) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Dender vs Francs Borains?
Our statistical model gives Dender a 61% chance of winning, Francs Borains a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Dender the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dender vs Francs Borains?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Dender and Francs Borains will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Dender vs Francs Borains have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dender's attack rating (1.17) and Francs Borains's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Francs Borains's attack (0.57x) against Dender's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from Dender's last 35 games and Francs Borains's last 13 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dender Win
61%
1.65
22%
4.46
17%
5.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Dender xG
Total xG
2.69
0.85
Francs Borains xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
5.88
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
26%
3.87
3%
36.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 10.6 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dender vs Francs Borains Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dender vs Francs Borains?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Dender and Francs Borains expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Dender and 0.85 for Francs Borains, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Dender vs Francs Borains?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dender come into this having played 13 games, going 5W 5D 3L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Francs Borains sit at 1.00 PPG from 13 outings (4W 1D 8L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Dender carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Francs Borains — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Dender's home form reads 2W 2D 2L across their last 6 home games, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Francs Borains have taken 0.50 points per game from their last 6 away games (1W 0D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Francs Borains's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dender come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dender are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Francs Borains are on 0.85 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dender have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dender
Blended
Francs Borains
Blended
Dender (Home) vs Francs Borains (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dender
Blended
Francs Borains
Blended
❓ Dender vs Francs Borains Form FAQs
What form are Dender and Francs Borains in coming into this match?
Dender have gone 5W 5D 3L in their last 13 games (1.54 PPG), while Francs Borains have gone 4W 1D 8L in their last 13 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dender at home or Francs Borains away?
Dender's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dender at home: 1.33 PPG; Francs Borains away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 3 H2H matches between Dender and Francs Borains, the earliest from December 2023. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 4 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dender won Francs Borains 0-3 Dender on 19 Apr 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Dender
0
Draws
1
Francs Borains
Recent Meetings
❓ Dender vs Francs Borains H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and Francs Borains?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Dender have won 2, Francs Borains have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dender and Francs Borains last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 November 2026: Francs Borains 1-0 Dender.
Who has won more matches between Dender and Francs Borains?
Dender have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dender 83%, Francs Borains 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Dender and 67% for Francs Borains. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Francs Borains in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dender home games / Francs Borains away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dender vs Francs Borains Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dender and Francs Borains matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Dender's games and 33% of Francs Borains's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Dender and Francs Borains matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Dender's matches and 67% of Francs Borains's.
Do Dender and Francs Borains matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Dender's recent matches and 67% of Francs Borains's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dender cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Francs Borains.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dender beat Francs Borains 2-0 at DENDER Football Complex, Regular Season - 14, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dender 1.83 xG and Francs Borains 0.85 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Francs Borains landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dender attack 1.17 / defence 0.97 against Francs Borains attack 0.57 / defence 1.34, drawn from 35/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dender 61% | Draw 22% | Francs Borains 17%, with Dender to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dender 46%, Francs Borains 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dender's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Francs Borains's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Dender arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dender (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.