Club Brugge II 1-1 Francs Borains – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Club Brugge II (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Club Brugge II face Francs Borains.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 1 as Club Brugge II welcome Francs Borains to Schiervelde Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 August 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Club Brugge II stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Club Brugge II haven't played a Challenger Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Club Brugge II's home record at Schiervelde Stadion: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Francs Borains have recorded 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Francs Borains haven't played a Challenger Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Francs Borains have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Club Brugge II carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Club Brugge II: 3 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Francs Borains, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2025, ended 2–0 with Club Brugge II winning.
The historical record gives Club Brugge II a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Club Brugge II in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Francs Borains in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Club Brugge II 55% versus Francs Borains 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Club Brugge II 62% | Francs Borains 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Club Brugge II 1.45 xG and Francs Borains 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Club Brugge II attack 1.050 / defence 0.915 | Francs Borains attack 0.900 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.564. Data: 29 Club Brugge II games / 29 Francs Borains games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Club Brugge II 41% | Draw 26% | Francs Borains 33%. Fair-value odds: Club Brugge II 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Francs Borains 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Club Brugge II are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Club Brugge II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Club Brugge II 30% | Francs Borains 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (29 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Club Brugge II vs Francs Borains | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Schiervelde Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Aug 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Club Brugge II 41% | Draw 26% | Francs Borains 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Club Brugge II 1.45 / Francs Borains 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Club Brugge II attack 1.050 / def 0.915 | Francs Borains attack 0.900 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.564 • Poisson stance: Club Brugge II (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Club Brugge II xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Francs Borains xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Club Brugge II vs Francs Borains kick off?
Club Brugge II vs Francs Borains kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 10 August 2025 at Schiervelde Stadion.
What was the final score in Club Brugge II vs Francs Borains?
Club Brugge II 1 - 1 Francs Borains.
Where is Club Brugge II vs Francs Borains being played?
The match is being played at Schiervelde Stadion.
What competition is Club Brugge II vs Francs Borains part of?
Club Brugge II vs Francs Borains is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Club Brugge II vs Francs Borains?
Our statistical model gives Club Brugge II a 41% chance of winning, Francs Borains a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Club Brugge II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Club Brugge II vs Francs Borains?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Club Brugge II and Francs Borains will score (BTTS).
Will Club Brugge II vs Francs Borains have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Club Brugge II and Francs Borains?
Record (4 meetings): Club Brugge II 3W | Draws 1 | Francs Borains 0W.
What form are Club Brugge II and Francs Borains in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Club Brugge II (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Club Brugge II's attack rating (1.05) and Francs Borains's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Francs Borains's attack versus Club Brugge II's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Club Brugge II Win
41%
2.44
26%
3.92
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Club Brugge II xG
Total xG
2.74
1.29
Francs Borains xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
11%
8.82
8%
12.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.1 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Club Brugge II vs Francs Borains?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Club Brugge II and Francs Borains expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Club Brugge II and 1.29 for Francs Borains, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Club Brugge II vs Francs Borains?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Club Brugge II come into this having played 29 games, going 14W 5D 10L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W. Club Brugge II haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Francs Borains sit at 1.07 PPG from 29 outings (9W 4D 16L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. Francs Borains haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Club Brugge II carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Francs Borains — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Club Brugge II's home form reads 8W 1D 5L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Francs Borains have taken 1.21 points per game from 14 outings (5W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Club Brugge II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Club Brugge II are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Francs Borains are on 1.10 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Club Brugge II
Pre-Season
Francs Borains
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Club Brugge II and Francs Borains in coming into this match?
Club Brugge II have gone 14W 5D 10L in their last 29 games (1.62 PPG), while Francs Borains have gone 9W 4D 16L in their last 29 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Club Brugge II at home or Francs Borains away?
Club Brugge II's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Club Brugge II at home: 1.79 PPG; Francs Borains away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Club Brugge II's record when hosting Francs Borains specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Club Brugge II
2
Draws
1
Francs Borains
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Club Brugge II and Francs Borains?
From 6 meetings on record, Club Brugge II have won 3, Francs Borains have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Club Brugge II and Francs Borains last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when Francs Borains 1-0 Club Brugge II.
Who has won more matches between Club Brugge II and Francs Borains?
Club Brugge II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Club Brugge II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Club Brugge II 36%, Francs Borains 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Club Brugge II and 64% for Francs Borains. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Club Brugge II keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Club Brugge II have failed to score in 29% of games; Francs Borains in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Club Brugge II home games / Francs Borains away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Club Brugge II play Francs Borains?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Club Brugge II's recent matches and 50% of Francs Borains's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Club Brugge II vs Francs Borains usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Club Brugge II's matches and 64% of Francs Borains's.
Do Club Brugge II and Francs Borains tend to score early?
Club Brugge II have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Francs Borains in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Club Brugge II and Francs Borains share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Club Brugge II and Francs Borains finished level at 1-1 at Schiervelde Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Club Brugge II 1.45 xG and Francs Borains 1.29 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Club Brugge II attack 1.05 / defence 0.92 against Francs Borains attack 0.90 / defence 1.04, drawn from 29/29 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Club Brugge II 41% | Draw 26% | Francs Borains 33%, with Club Brugge II to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Club Brugge II 62%, Francs Borains 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Club Brugge II's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Francs Borains's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Club Brugge II arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.