Beerschot VA 1-0 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SK Beveren at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beerschot VA vs SK Beveren encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Beerschot VA host SK Beveren at Olympisch Stadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Beerschot VA — All Games: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Beerschot VA haven't played a Challenger Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Beerschot VA's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Olympisch Stadion this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Beerschot VA are significantly better at Olympisch Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SK Beveren stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. SK Beveren haven't played a Challenger Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
SK Beveren's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SK Beveren — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Beerschot VA trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
SK Beveren trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beerschot VA 46% versus SK Beveren 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beerschot VA 57% | SK Beveren 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beerschot VA 1.25 xG and SK Beveren 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beerschot VA attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | SK Beveren attack 1.009 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.441. Data: 0 Beerschot VA games / 28 SK Beveren games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Beerschot VA 27% | Draw 28% | SK Beveren 46%. Fair-value odds: Beerschot VA 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | SK Beveren 2.17. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.25 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SK Beveren as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SK Beveren offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Beerschot VA 50% | SK Beveren 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beerschot VA vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Olympisch Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beerschot VA 27% | Draw 28% | SK Beveren 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Beerschot VA 1.25 / SK Beveren 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Beerschot VA attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | SK Beveren attack 1.009 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Beerschot VA xG
Expected Goals
1.67
SK Beveren xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beerschot VA vs SK Beveren kick off?
Beerschot VA vs SK Beveren kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Olympisch Stadion.
What was the final score in Beerschot VA vs SK Beveren?
Beerschot VA 1 - 0 SK Beveren.
Where is Beerschot VA vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Olympisch Stadion.
What competition is Beerschot VA vs SK Beveren part of?
Beerschot VA vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Beerschot VA vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives Beerschot VA a 27% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beerschot VA vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Beerschot VA and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will Beerschot VA vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and SK Beveren?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Beerschot VA and SK Beveren in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Beerschot VA (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Beerschot VA's attack at 0.85x the league average against SK Beveren's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SK Beveren's attack versus Beerschot VA's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
27%
3.75
28%
3.60
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Beerschot VA xG
Total xG
2.92
1.67
SK Beveren xG
3.75
27%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
19%
5.32
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
5%
19.97
13%
7.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.0 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beerschot VA vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Beerschot VA and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Beerschot VA and 1.67 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Beerschot VA vs SK Beveren?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Beerschot VA come into this having played 28 games, going 4W 3D 21L for 0.54 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. Beerschot VA haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, SK Beveren sit at 1.46 PPG from 28 outings (12W 5D 11L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-W across their last five. SK Beveren haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
SK Beveren carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.92 PPG clear of Beerschot VA — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Beerschot VA's home form reads 4W 1D 9L across 14 games on their own ground, a 0.93 PPG return.
Away from home, SK Beveren have taken 1.36 points per game from 14 outings (5W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beerschot VA are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 2.18 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 1.68 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beerschot VA
Pre-Season
SK Beveren
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beerschot VA and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
Beerschot VA have gone 4W 3D 21L in their last 28 games (0.54 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 12W 5D 11L in their last 28 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beerschot VA at home or SK Beveren away?
SK Beveren's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beerschot VA at home: 0.93 PPG; SK Beveren away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Apr 2023, when SK Beveren won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beerschot VA's record when hosting SK Beveren specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Beerschot VA
2
Draws
5
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and SK Beveren?
From 8 meetings on record, Beerschot VA have won 1, SK Beveren have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Beerschot VA and SK Beveren last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when SK Beveren 4-2 Beerschot VA.
Who has won more matches between Beerschot VA and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beerschot VA 36%, SK Beveren 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Beerschot VA and 71% for SK Beveren. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beerschot VA home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beerschot VA play SK Beveren?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Beerschot VA's recent matches and 57% of SK Beveren's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beerschot VA vs SK Beveren usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Beerschot VA's matches and 71% of SK Beveren's.
Do Beerschot VA and SK Beveren tend to score early?
Beerschot VA have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, SK Beveren in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Beerschot VA defy the odds to beat SK Beveren 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beerschot VA beat SK Beveren 1-0 at Olympisch Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 1.25 xG and SK Beveren 1.67 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SK Beveren landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against SK Beveren attack 1.01 / defence 1.05, drawn from 0/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 27% | Draw 28% | SK Beveren 46%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Beerschot VA win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 57%, SK Beveren 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beerschot VA's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
SK Beveren's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.54. Form was overturned, with Beerschot VA winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. SK Beveren (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.