Beerschot VA 1-1 RWDM – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RWDM at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beerschot VA vs RWDM encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 26 as Beerschot VA welcome RWDM to Olympisch Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beerschot VA stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Olympisch Stadion, Beerschot VA have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Beerschot VA are significantly better at Olympisch Stadion than their overall form suggests.
RWDM — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for RWDM, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RWDM's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Beerschot VA 1.10 PPG, RWDM 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Beerschot VA, 3 for RWDM and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Beerschot VA winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Beerschot VA trading profile (55 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
RWDM trading profile (55 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beerschot VA 54% versus RWDM 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beerschot VA 56% | RWDM 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beerschot VA 1.17 xG and RWDM 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beerschot VA attack 0.923 / defence 0.929 | RWDM attack 0.952 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.332. Data: 24 Beerschot VA games / 53 RWDM games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beerschot VA 36% | Draw 28% | RWDM 36%. Fair-value odds: Beerschot VA 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | RWDM 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Beerschot VA 60% | RWDM 40%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beerschot VA vs RWDM | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Olympisch Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beerschot VA 36% | Draw 28% | RWDM 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Beerschot VA 1.17 / RWDM 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Beerschot VA attack 0.923 / def 0.929 | RWDM attack 0.952 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Beerschot VA xG
Expected Goals
1.18
RWDM xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beerschot VA vs RWDM kick off?
Beerschot VA vs RWDM kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Olympisch Stadion.
What was the final score in Beerschot VA vs RWDM?
Beerschot VA 1 - 1 RWDM.
Where is Beerschot VA vs RWDM being played?
The match is being played at Olympisch Stadion.
What competition is Beerschot VA vs RWDM part of?
Beerschot VA vs RWDM is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Beerschot VA vs RWDM?
Our statistical model gives Beerschot VA a 36% chance of winning, RWDM a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Beerschot VA vs RWDM?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Beerschot VA and RWDM will score (BTTS).
Will Beerschot VA vs RWDM have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and RWDM?
Record (5 meetings): Beerschot VA 1W | Draws 1 | RWDM 3W.
What form are Beerschot VA and RWDM in?
Beerschot VA (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. RWDM (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Beerschot VA's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against RWDM's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, RWDM's attack versus Beerschot VA's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RWDM Win
36%
2.79
28%
3.57
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Beerschot VA xG
Total xG
2.35
1.18
RWDM xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
11%
9.05
11%
8.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 11.2 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beerschot VA vs RWDM?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Beerschot VA and RWDM expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Beerschot VA and 1.18 for RWDM, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Beerschot VA vs RWDM?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Beerschot VA come into this having played 55 games, going 18W 13D 24L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, RWDM sit at 1.64 PPG from 55 outings (26W 12D 17L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for RWDM is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RWDM carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Beerschot VA — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Beerschot VA's home form reads 11W 9D 6L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Beerschot VA are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, RWDM have taken 1.54 points per game from 26 outings (11W 7D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Beerschot VA are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; RWDM are on 1.55 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: RWDM in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beerschot VA
Blended
RWDM
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beerschot VA and RWDM in coming into this match?
Beerschot VA have gone 18W 13D 24L in their last 55 games (1.22 PPG), while RWDM have gone 26W 12D 17L in their last 55 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beerschot VA at home or RWDM away?
Beerschot VA's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beerschot VA at home: 1.62 PPG; RWDM away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Beerschot VA or RWDM been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beerschot VA have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, RWDM in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Beerschot VA and RWDM runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Apr 2023, when RWDM won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beerschot VA's record when hosting RWDM specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Beerschot VA
2
Draws
3
RWDM
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and RWDM?
From 6 meetings on record, Beerschot VA have won 1, RWDM have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Beerschot VA and RWDM last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Beerschot VA 1-1 RWDM.
Who has won more matches between Beerschot VA and RWDM?
RWDM have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
RWDM see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beerschot VA 58%, RWDM 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Beerschot VA) and 46% (RWDM).
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; RWDM in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beerschot VA home games / RWDM away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beerschot VA play RWDM?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Beerschot VA's recent matches and 46% of RWDM's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beerschot VA vs RWDM usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Beerschot VA's recent games and 46% of RWDM's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beerschot VA and RWDM tend to score early?
Beerschot VA have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, RWDM in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beerschot VA and RWDM share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Olympisch Stadion, Regular Season - 26, as Beerschot VA and RWDM drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 1.17 xG and RWDM 1.18 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 0.92 / defence 0.93 against RWDM attack 0.95 / defence 0.96, drawn from 24/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 36% | Draw 28% | RWDM 36%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 56%, RWDM 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beerschot VA's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
RWDM's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, RWDM arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.