Beerschot VA 1-2 RSC Anderlecht II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RSC Anderlecht II at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 11 as Beerschot VA welcome RSC Anderlecht II to Olympisch Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Beerschot VA — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beerschot VA's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Olympisch Stadion this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Olympisch Stadion this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, RSC Anderlecht II stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for RSC Anderlecht II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RSC Anderlecht II's away record: 3W 1D 1L from 5 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Beerschot VA) versus 1.60 (RSC Anderlecht II). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Beerschot VA register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, RSC Anderlecht II in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Beerschot VA trading profile (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games).
RSC Anderlecht II trading profile (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beerschot VA 60% and RSC Anderlecht II 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beerschot VA 50% | RSC Anderlecht II 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beerschot VA 1.45 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beerschot VA attack 0.834 / defence 1.022 | RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.167 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.494. Data: 10 Beerschot VA games / 10 RSC Anderlecht II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beerschot VA 30% | Draw 26% | RSC Anderlecht II 44%. Fair-value odds: Beerschot VA 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | RSC Anderlecht II 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.78) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RSC Anderlecht II as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RSC Anderlecht II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Beerschot VA 60% | RSC Anderlecht II 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Olympisch Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beerschot VA 30% | Draw 26% | RSC Anderlecht II 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Beerschot VA 1.45 / RSC Anderlecht II 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Beerschot VA attack 0.834 / def 1.022 | RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.167 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.494 • Poisson stance: RSC Anderlecht II (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Beerschot VA xG
Expected Goals
1.78
RSC Anderlecht II xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II kick off?
Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Olympisch Stadion.
What was the final score in Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Beerschot VA 1 - 2 RSC Anderlecht II.
Where is Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II being played?
The match is being played at Olympisch Stadion.
What competition is Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II part of?
Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our statistical model gives Beerschot VA a 30% chance of winning, RSC Anderlecht II a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making RSC Anderlecht II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II will score (BTTS).
Will Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II in?
Beerschot VA (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. RSC Anderlecht II (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Beerschot VA's attack at 0.83x the league average against RSC Anderlecht II's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, RSC Anderlecht II's attack versus Beerschot VA's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RSC Anderlecht II Win
30%
3.31
26%
3.92
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Beerschot VA xG
Total xG
3.23
1.78
RSC Anderlecht II xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
17%
5.94
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
5%
19.67
10%
9.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.2 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Beerschot VA and 1.78 for RSC Anderlecht II, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 10 outings, Beerschot VA have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 5W 2D 3L record — W-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RSC Anderlecht II's form line: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games, 1.60 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L. The sample for RSC Anderlecht II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beerschot VA on 1.70 PPG, RSC Anderlecht II on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Beerschot VA have posted 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
On the road, RSC Anderlecht II have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RSC Anderlecht II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beerschot VA are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; RSC Anderlecht II are on 1.80 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beerschot VA have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; RSC Anderlecht II in 70%.
Last 10 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beerschot VA
Blended
RSC Anderlecht II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II in coming into this match?
Beerschot VA have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 games (1.70 PPG), while RSC Anderlecht II have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beerschot VA at home or RSC Anderlecht II away?
RSC Anderlecht II's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beerschot VA at home: 1.40 PPG; RSC Anderlecht II away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 10 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Beerschot VA have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Beerschot VA's record when hosting RSC Anderlecht II specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Beerschot VA
2
Draws
1
RSC Anderlecht II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II?
From 8 meetings on record, Beerschot VA have won 5, RSC Anderlecht II have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2026, when Beerschot VA 4-2 RSC Anderlecht II.
Who has won more matches between Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II?
Beerschot VA have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
RSC Anderlecht II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beerschot VA 40%, RSC Anderlecht II 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Beerschot VA) and 80% (RSC Anderlecht II).
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beerschot VA home games / RSC Anderlecht II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beerschot VA play RSC Anderlecht II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Beerschot VA's games and 80% of RSC Anderlecht II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beerschot VA vs RSC Anderlecht II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Beerschot VA's recent games and 80% of RSC Anderlecht II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beerschot VA and RSC Anderlecht II tend to score early?
Beerschot VA have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, RSC Anderlecht II in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RSC Anderlecht II edge out Beerschot VA 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RSC Anderlecht II beat Beerschot VA 1-2 at Olympisch Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 1.45 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 1.78 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 0.83 / defence 1.02 against RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.17 / defence 1.14, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 30% | Draw 26% | RSC Anderlecht II 44%, with RSC Anderlecht II to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 50%, RSC Anderlecht II 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beerschot VA's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
RSC Anderlecht II's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beerschot VA 1.70 PPG, RSC Anderlecht II 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RSC Anderlecht II win broke the near-deadlock. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.