Beerschot VA 1-0 KRC Genk II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Beerschot VA (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Beerschot VA face KRC Genk II.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
KRC Genk II make the trip to Olympisch Stadion to face Beerschot VA in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Friday 6 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beerschot VA have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beerschot VA at Olympisch Stadion this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
KRC Genk II (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for KRC Genk II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KRC Genk II's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Beerschot VA. A 0.70 PPG lead over KRC Genk II (1.50 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Beerschot VA have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, KRC Genk II in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Beerschot VA, who have won 5 of the last 5 meetings against KRC Genk II — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2025, ended 2–0 with Beerschot VA winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Beerschot VA and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Beerschot VA — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
KRC Genk II — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beerschot VA 56% versus KRC Genk II 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beerschot VA 52% | KRC Genk II 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beerschot VA 1.70 xG and KRC Genk II 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beerschot VA attack 0.914 / defence 0.908 | KRC Genk II attack 1.000 / defence 1.418. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.415. KRC Genk II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.418 — this is suppressing Beerschot VA's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Beerschot VA games / 54 KRC Genk II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beerschot VA 47% | Draw 24% | KRC Genk II 29%. Fair-value odds: Beerschot VA 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | KRC Genk II 3.45. Beerschot VA hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beerschot VA as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beerschot VA if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Beerschot VA 60% | KRC Genk II 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Olympisch Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 6 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beerschot VA 47% | Draw 24% | KRC Genk II 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Beerschot VA 1.70 / KRC Genk II 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Beerschot VA attack 0.914 / def 0.908 | KRC Genk II attack 1.000 / def 1.418 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.415 • Poisson stance: Beerschot VA (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Beerschot VA xG
Expected Goals
1.28
KRC Genk II xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II kick off?
Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 March 2026 at Olympisch Stadion.
What was the final score in Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II?
Beerschot VA 1 - 0 KRC Genk II.
Where is Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II being played?
The match is being played at Olympisch Stadion.
What competition is Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II part of?
Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II?
Our statistical model gives Beerschot VA a 47% chance of winning, KRC Genk II a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Beerschot VA the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II will score (BTTS).
Will Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II?
Record (5 meetings): Beerschot VA 5W | Draws 0 | KRC Genk II 0W.
What form are Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II in?
Beerschot VA (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. KRC Genk II (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Beerschot VA's attack rating (0.91) and KRC Genk II's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — KRC Genk II's attack (1.00x) against Beerschot VA's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 26/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beerschot VA Win
47%
2.12
24%
4.20
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Beerschot VA xG
Total xG
2.98
1.28
KRC Genk II xG
2.12
47%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
13%
7.66
5%
18.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Beerschot VA and 1.28 for KRC Genk II, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Beerschot VA's recent record stands at 19W 14D 21L from 54 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KRC Genk II, meanwhile, have gone 9W 10D 35L across 54 games — 0.69 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for KRC Genk II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beerschot VA by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over KRC Genk II heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Beerschot VA have managed 11W 10D 6L from 27 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KRC Genk II's away record stands at 3W 6D 18L across 27 trips, a 0.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beerschot VA come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beerschot VA are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; KRC Genk II are on 1.17 scored and 2.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II in 61%.
Last 54 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beerschot VA
Blended
KRC Genk II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II in coming into this match?
Beerschot VA have gone 19W 14D 21L in their last 54 games (1.31 PPG), while KRC Genk II have gone 9W 10D 35L in their last 54 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beerschot VA at home or KRC Genk II away?
Beerschot VA's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beerschot VA at home: 1.59 PPG; KRC Genk II away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Beerschot VA have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beerschot VA have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against KRC Genk II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Beerschot VA
0
Draws
0
KRC Genk II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II?
From 6 meetings on record, Beerschot VA have won 6, KRC Genk II have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Beerschot VA 1-0 KRC Genk II.
Who has won more matches between Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II?
Beerschot VA have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beerschot VA 59%, KRC Genk II 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Beerschot VA) and 70% (KRC Genk II). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: KRC Genk II in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beerschot VA home games / KRC Genk II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beerschot VA play KRC Genk II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Beerschot VA's games and 63% of KRC Genk II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beerschot VA vs KRC Genk II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Beerschot VA's matches and 70% of KRC Genk II's.
Do Beerschot VA and KRC Genk II tend to score early?
Beerschot VA have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, KRC Genk II in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beerschot VA edge out KRC Genk II 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beerschot VA beat KRC Genk II 1-0 at Olympisch Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 1.70 xG and KRC Genk II 1.28 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. KRC Genk II landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 0.91 / defence 0.91 against KRC Genk II attack 1.00 / defence 1.42, drawn from 26/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 47% | Draw 24% | KRC Genk II 29%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 52%, KRC Genk II 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beerschot VA's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
KRC Genk II's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Beerschot VA arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.69. That form edge translated into the three points. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.