WSG Wattens 3-1 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates WSG Wattens at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Relegation Group - 25 sees Wolfsberger AC travel to Tivoli Stadion Tirol to take on WSG Wattens. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 April 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
WSG Wattens — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, WSG Wattens have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolfsberger AC stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, WSG Wattens have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. WSG Wattens register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Wolfsberger AC in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, WSG Wattens have won 1, Wolfsberger AC 3, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
WSG Wattens trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Wolfsberger AC trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — WSG Wattens 57% and Wolfsberger AC 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 52% | Wolfsberger AC 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.64 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.986 / defence 0.931 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.935 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Wolfsberger AC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.238 — this is suppressing WSG Wattens's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 WSG Wattens games / 44 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 52% | Draw 26% | Wolfsberger AC 22%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Wolfsberger AC 4.55. WSG Wattens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Wolfsberger AC lead the H2H ledger, but WSG Wattens carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, WSG Wattens are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: WSG Wattens 60% | Wolfsberger AC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 25 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Apr 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 52% | Draw 26% | Wolfsberger AC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG WSG Wattens 1.64 / Wolfsberger AC 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.986 / def 0.931 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.935 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Wolfsberger AC xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC?
WSG Wattens 3 - 1 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC is a Relegation Group - 25 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 52% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC?
Record (8 meetings): WSG Wattens 1W | Draws 4 | Wolfsberger AC 3W.
What form are WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from WSG Wattens's attack rating (0.99) and Wolfsberger AC's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wolfsberger AC's attack versus WSG Wattens's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
52%
1.93
26%
3.85
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.64
1.00
Wolfsberger AC xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
19%
5.25
4%
23.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.00 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
WSG Wattens's recent record stands at 15W 16D 25L from 56 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wolfsberger AC, meanwhile, have gone 23W 13D 20L across 56 games — 1.46 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: WSG Wattens on 1.09 PPG, Wolfsberger AC on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, WSG Wattens have managed 8W 10D 10L from 28 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wolfsberger AC's away record stands at 11W 6D 11L across 28 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.64 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC in 64%.
Last 56 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 15W 16D 25L in their last 56 games (1.09 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 23W 13D 20L in their last 56 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Wolfsberger AC's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 1.21 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Feb 2024, when Wolfsberger AC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
WSG Wattens's record when hosting Wolfsberger AC specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
WSG Wattens
4
Draws
4
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 2, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Wolfsberger AC 2-0 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC?
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 54%, Wolfsberger AC 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (WSG Wattens) and 57% (Wolfsberger AC).
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; WSG Wattens have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play Wolfsberger AC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of WSG Wattens's games and 61% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of WSG Wattens's recent games and 57% of Wolfsberger AC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
WSG Wattens cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Wolfsberger AC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
WSG Wattens beat Wolfsberger AC 3-1 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Relegation Group - 25, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.64 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.00 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. WSG Wattens beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.99 / defence 0.93 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.94 / defence 1.24, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 52% | Draw 26% | Wolfsberger AC 22%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 52%, Wolfsberger AC 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 1.09 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the WSG Wattens win broke the near-deadlock. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.