WSG Wattens 4-2 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates WSG Wattens at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tivoli Stadion Tirol plays host to WSG Wattens versus TSV Hartberg in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
WSG Wattens have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, WSG Wattens have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
TSV Hartberg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in WSG Wattens's favour (1.70 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
TSV Hartberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 50% versus TSV Hartberg 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 57% | TSV Hartberg 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.43 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.973 / defence 1.247 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.743 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.239. TSV Hartberg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.276 — this is suppressing WSG Wattens's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 WSG Wattens games / 22 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 43% | Draw 26% | TSV Hartberg 30%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | TSV Hartberg 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates WSG Wattens as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: WSG Wattens 40% | TSV Hartberg 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 9 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 43% | Draw 26% | TSV Hartberg 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG WSG Wattens 1.43 / TSV Hartberg 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.973 / def 1.247 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.743 / def 1.276 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.15
TSV Hartberg xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
WSG Wattens 4 - 2 TSV Hartberg.
Where is WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg part of?
WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg is a Relegation Round - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 43% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
WSG Wattens's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (0.74x) against WSG Wattens's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.3%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
43%
2.30
26%
3.81
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.57
1.15
TSV Hartberg xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
7%
13.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.5 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.15 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, WSG Wattens have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 9W 10D 11L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
TSV Hartberg's form line: 7W 11D 12L from 30 games, 1.07 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for WSG Wattens against 1.07 for TSV Hartberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, WSG Wattens have posted 1.27 PPG from 15 outings (4W 7D 4L).
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 4W 6D 5L from 15 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.33 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Current Season
TSV Hartberg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 9W 10D 11L in their last 30 games (1.23 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 7W 11D 12L in their last 30 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or TSV Hartberg away?
WSG Wattens's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 1.27 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 13 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: TSV Hartberg won 5-0 on 6 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, WSG Wattens have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
WSG Wattens
2
Draws
6
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 2, TSV Hartberg have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2025, when TSV Hartberg 2-1 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 53%, TSV Hartberg 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (WSG Wattens) and 47% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens have failed to score in 33% of games; TSV Hartberg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of WSG Wattens's recent matches and 53% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of WSG Wattens's recent games and 47% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
WSG Wattens cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over TSV Hartberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
WSG Wattens beat TSV Hartberg 4-2 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Relegation Round - 9, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.43 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.15 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. WSG Wattens beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. TSV Hartberg outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.97 / defence 1.25 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.74 / defence 1.28, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 43% | Draw 26% | TSV Hartberg 30%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 57%, TSV Hartberg 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 1.23 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the WSG Wattens win broke the near-deadlock. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.