WSG Wattens 4-2 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates WSG Wattens at 38%, yet in-form TSV Hartberg provide a compelling counter-argument — this WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tivoli Stadion Tirol plays host to WSG Wattens versus TSV Hartberg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 2 August 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
WSG Wattens have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. WSG Wattens haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, WSG Wattens have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
TSV Hartberg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. TSV Hartberg haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, TSV Hartberg are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 8 meetings, TSV Hartberg have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to WSG Wattens's 1, with 2 draws in the mix.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2025, ended 2–3 with TSV Hartberg winning.
It is worth noting that TSV Hartberg have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
TSV Hartberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 50% versus TSV Hartberg 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 53% | TSV Hartberg 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.40 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.923 / defence 1.017 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.946 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.275. Data: 22 WSG Wattens games / 22 TSV Hartberg games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 38% | Draw 32% | TSV Hartberg 30%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | TSV Hartberg 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates WSG Wattens as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form TSV Hartberg (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: WSG Wattens 50% | TSV Hartberg 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (22 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Aug 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 38% | Draw 32% | TSV Hartberg 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG WSG Wattens 1.40 / TSV Hartberg 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.923 / def 1.017 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.946 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.495 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.23
TSV Hartberg xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 2 August 2025 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
WSG Wattens 4 - 2 TSV Hartberg.
Where is WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg part of?
WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 38% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg?
Record (8 meetings): WSG Wattens 1W | Draws 2 | TSV Hartberg 5W.
What form are WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. WSG Wattens (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
WSG Wattens's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (0.95x) against WSG Wattens's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
38%
2.62
32%
3.12
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.63
1.23
TSV Hartberg xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
11%
8.94
7%
13.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.4 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.23 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 32 outings, WSG Wattens have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 7W 9D 16L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. WSG Wattens haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
TSV Hartberg's form line: 11W 11D 10L from 32 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-L. TSV Hartberg haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, TSV Hartberg are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against WSG Wattens.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, WSG Wattens have posted 1.00 PPG from 16 outings (3W 7D 6L).
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 5W 6D 5L from 16 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.22 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Pre-Season
TSV Hartberg
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 7W 9D 16L in their last 32 games (0.94 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 11W 11D 10L in their last 32 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or TSV Hartberg away?
TSV Hartberg's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 1.00 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 13 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: TSV Hartberg won 5-0 on 6 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, WSG Wattens have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
WSG Wattens
2
Draws
6
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 2, TSV Hartberg have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2025, when TSV Hartberg 2-1 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
WSG Wattens see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 44%, TSV Hartberg 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (WSG Wattens) and 50% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; TSV Hartberg in 38%; WSG Wattens have failed to score in 44% of games; TSV Hartberg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of WSG Wattens's recent matches and 44% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of WSG Wattens's recent games and 50% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
WSG Wattens cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over TSV Hartberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
WSG Wattens beat TSV Hartberg 4-2 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 1, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.40 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.23 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. WSG Wattens beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.92 / defence 1.02 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.95 / defence 1.02, drawn from 22/22 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 38% | Draw 32% | TSV Hartberg 30%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 53%, TSV Hartberg 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, TSV Hartberg arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with WSG Wattens winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.