WSG Wattens 2-2 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates WSG Wattens at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
WSG Wattens and SCR Altach meet at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
WSG Wattens have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
WSG Wattens at Tivoli Stadion Tirol this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SCR Altach (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SCR Altach's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — WSG Wattens lead 3W to 3W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2025, ended 0–3 with SCR Altach winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 57% versus SCR Altach 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 53% | SCR Altach 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.34 xG and SCR Altach 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.988 / defence 0.936 | SCR Altach attack 0.804 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: 44 WSG Wattens games / 44 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 47% | Draw 30% | SCR Altach 23%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | SCR Altach 4.35. WSG Wattens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is WSG Wattens at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: WSG Wattens 60% | SCR Altach 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 27 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 47% | Draw 30% | SCR Altach 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG WSG Wattens 1.34 / SCR Altach 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.988 / def 0.936 | SCR Altach attack 0.804 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
0.86
SCR Altach xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach kick off?
WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach?
WSG Wattens 2 - 2 SCR Altach.
Where is WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach part of?
WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach is a Relegation Group - 27 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 47% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both WSG Wattens and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and SCR Altach?
Record (7 meetings): WSG Wattens 3W | Draws 1 | SCR Altach 3W.
What form are WSG Wattens and SCR Altach in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. SCR Altach (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from WSG Wattens's attack rating (0.99) and SCR Altach's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SCR Altach's attack (0.80x) against WSG Wattens's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
47%
2.13
30%
3.38
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.20
0.86
SCR Altach xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
6%
16.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 12.8 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 0.86 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
WSG Wattens's recent record stands at 16W 16D 26L from 58 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SCR Altach, meanwhile, have gone 14W 20D 24L across 58 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for WSG Wattens against 1.07 for SCR Altach. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, WSG Wattens have managed 9W 10D 10L from 29 games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SCR Altach's away record stands at 5W 7D 17L across 29 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, WSG Wattens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 1.00 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 16W 16D 26L in their last 58 games (1.10 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 14W 20D 24L in their last 58 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or SCR Altach away?
WSG Wattens's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 1.28 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SCR Altach won 3-0 on 26 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, WSG Wattens have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
WSG Wattens
3
Draws
4
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 3, SCR Altach have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when SCR Altach 3-1 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and SCR Altach?
SCR Altach have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
SCR Altach see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 55%, SCR Altach 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (WSG Wattens) and 45% (SCR Altach).
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; WSG Wattens have failed to score in 28% of games; SCR Altach in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of WSG Wattens's recent matches and 38% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of WSG Wattens's recent games and 45% of SCR Altach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do WSG Wattens and SCR Altach tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
WSG Wattens and SCR Altach share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Relegation Group - 27, as WSG Wattens and SCR Altach drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.34 xG and SCR Altach 0.86 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. SCR Altach outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.99 / defence 0.94 against SCR Altach attack 0.80 / defence 1.00, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 47% | Draw 30% | SCR Altach 23%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 53%, SCR Altach 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
SCR Altach's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 1.10 PPG, SCR Altach 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.