Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 21 as Wolfsberger AC welcome SCR Altach to Lavanttal-Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Wolfsberger AC — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolfsberger AC at Lavanttal-Arena this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lavanttal-Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Wolfsberger AC are significantly better at Lavanttal-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SCR Altach have recorded 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SCR Altach away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Wolfsberger AC at 0.50 PPG versus SCR Altach's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, SCR Altach 4, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Oct 2026, ended 0–3 with SCR Altach winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Wolfsberger AC in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
SCR Altach in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolfsberger AC 56% versus SCR Altach 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 61% | SCR Altach 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.37 xG and SCR Altach 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.754 / defence 1.151 | SCR Altach attack 0.552 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.806 / away 1.304. Wolfsberger AC's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 1.37 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 Wolfsberger AC games / 31 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 46% | Draw 34% | SCR Altach 19%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 2.17 | Draw 2.94 | SCR Altach 5.26. Wolfsberger AC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Wolfsberger AC 30% | SCR Altach 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Lavanttal-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 46% | Draw 34% | SCR Altach 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.37 / SCR Altach 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.754 / def 1.151 | SCR Altach attack 0.552 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.806 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
0.83
SCR Altach xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 February 2027 at Lavanttal-Arena.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal-Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 46% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 19% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach?
Record (10 meetings): Wolfsberger AC 3W | Draws 3 | SCR Altach 4W.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. SCR Altach (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Wolfsberger AC's attack at 0.75x the league average against SCR Altach's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SCR Altach's attack versus Wolfsberger AC's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
46%
2.16
34%
2.91
19%
5.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.20
0.83
SCR Altach xG
2.16
46%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
5.15
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
20%
4.95
5%
20.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 12.6 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.6 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 0.83 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Wolfsberger AC have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 12W 10D 19L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SCR Altach's form line: 12W 12D 17L from 41 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wolfsberger AC on 1.12 PPG, SCR Altach on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Wolfsberger AC have posted 1.40 PPG from 20 outings (7W 7D 6L).
On the road, SCR Altach have gone 1W 6D 13L from 20 away games — 0.45 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SCR Altach's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wolfsberger AC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 1.07 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 12W 10D 19L in their last 41 games (1.12 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 12W 12D 17L in their last 41 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or SCR Altach away?
Wolfsberger AC's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.40 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2026, when Wolfsberger AC won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wolfsberger AC's record when hosting SCR Altach specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Wolfsberger AC
3
Draws
4
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, SCR Altach have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when SCR Altach 3-0 Wolfsberger AC.
Who has won more matches between Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach?
SCR Altach have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 50%, SCR Altach 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Wolfsberger AC) and 50% (SCR Altach).
On the defensive side: Wolfsberger AC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; SCR Altach in 65%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Wolfsberger AC's recent matches and 30% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Wolfsberger AC's recent games and 50% of SCR Altach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.