Wolfsberger AC 0-2 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Wolfsberger AC face Rapid Vienna.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lavanttal Arena plays host to Wolfsberger AC versus Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga (matchday 18). Kick-off: Sunday 11 February 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Wolfsberger AC have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Wolfsberger AC have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rapid Vienna's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Rapid Vienna's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 6.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 17 Sep 2023, ended Wolfsberger AC 3–3 Rapid Vienna — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 6.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Wolfsberger AC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wolfsberger AC 63% and Rapid Vienna 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 69% | Rapid Vienna 53%). Note also that Rapid Vienna surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Wolfsberger AC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.15 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.091 / defence 0.952 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.152 / defence 0.801. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.189. Data: built from Wolfsberger AC's last 39 games and Rapid Vienna's last 39.
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 32% | Draw 29% | Rapid Vienna 39%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 3.13 | Draw 3.49 | Rapid Vienna 2.53. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rapid Vienna are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Wolfsberger AC 60% (last 10 home games) | Rapid Vienna 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 18 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 February 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 32% | Draw 29% | Rapid Vienna 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.15 / Rapid Vienna 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.091 / def 0.952 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.152 / def 0.801 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Rapid Vienna xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna FAQs
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna?
Wolfsberger AC 0 - 2 Rapid Vienna.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 18) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 32% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Wolfsberger AC's attack at 1.09x the league average against Rapid Vienna's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rapid Vienna's attack (1.15x) against Wolfsberger AC's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from Wolfsberger AC's last 39 games and Rapid Vienna's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
32%
3.13
29%
3.49
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.45
1.30
Rapid Vienna xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
9%
11.55
13%
7.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.2 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.30 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Wolfsberger AC's recent record stands at 18W 10D 21L from 49 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Rapid Vienna, meanwhile, have gone 18W 12D 19L across 49 games — 1.35 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Wolfsberger AC against 1.35 for Rapid Vienna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Wolfsberger AC have managed 7W 4D 13L from their last 24 home games — 1.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rapid Vienna's away record stands at 9W 4D 11L across their last 24 away games, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.63 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
Wolfsberger AC (Home) vs Rapid Vienna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
❓ Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna Form FAQs
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 18W 10D 21L in their last 49 games (1.31 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 18W 12D 19L in their last 49 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Rapid Vienna's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.04 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 6 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Rapid Vienna have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rapid Vienna won Rapid Vienna 6-0 Wolfsberger AC on 6 Nov 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wolfsberger AC have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Rapid Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Wolfsberger AC
2
Draws
5
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, Rapid Vienna have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 November 2026: Rapid Vienna 6-0 Wolfsberger AC.
Who has won more matches between Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 71%, Rapid Vienna 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Wolfsberger AC and 54% for Rapid Vienna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 50% of Rapid Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Wolfsberger AC's matches and 54% of Rapid Vienna's.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Wolfsberger AC's recent matches and 71% of Rapid Vienna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rapid Vienna cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Wolfsberger AC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna beat Wolfsberger AC 0-2 at Lavanttal Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.15 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.30 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.09 / defence 0.95 against Rapid Vienna attack 1.15 / defence 0.80, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 32% | Draw 29% | Rapid Vienna 39%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 69%, Rapid Vienna 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.31 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rapid Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.