TSV Hartberg 0-3 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wolfsberger AC at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
TSV Hartberg welcome Wolfsberger AC to PROfertil ARENA in Bundesliga (matchday 20). Kick-off is Saturday 1 March 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, TSV Hartberg have gone 2W 5D 3L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
TSV Hartberg's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Wolfsberger AC stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Wolfsberger AC's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Wolfsberger AC — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of TSV Hartberg's games and 60% of Wolfsberger AC's (from TSV Hartberg's last 10 home games and Wolfsberger AC's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of TSV Hartberg: 4 wins from 6 H2H matches against 1 for Wolfsberger AC, with 1 draw.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2024, ended TSV Hartberg 3–2 Wolfsberger AC — a TSV Hartberg win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both TSV Hartberg and goals — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches and an average of 3.2 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
TSV Hartberg in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Wolfsberger AC in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 58% versus Wolfsberger AC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 58% | Wolfsberger AC 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: TSV Hartberg surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Wolfsberger AC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 39% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.53 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.891 / defence 0.972 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.506 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.192. Wolfsberger AC have an above-average attack rating of 1.506, which lifts their away xG to 1.75. Data: built from TSV Hartberg's last 41 games and Wolfsberger AC's last 41.
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 31% | Draw 29% | Wolfsberger AC 40%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 3.21 | Draw 3.51 | Wolfsberger AC 2.48. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.53 / 1.75) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record in our data (4 wins to 1), yet Wolfsberger AC are the in-form side right now — head-to-head edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wolfsberger AC at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (TSV Hartberg's last 10 home games and Wolfsberger AC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: TSV Hartberg 70% (last 10 home games) | Wolfsberger AC 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 20 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 1 March 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 31% | Draw 29% | Wolfsberger AC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG TSV Hartberg 1.53 / Wolfsberger AC 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.891 / def 0.972 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.506 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Wolfsberger AC xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC FAQs
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 1 March 2025 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
TSV Hartberg 0 - 3 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 20) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 31% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates TSV Hartberg's attack at 0.89x the league average against Wolfsberger AC's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wolfsberger AC's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from TSV Hartberg's last 41 games and Wolfsberger AC's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
31%
3.21
29%
3.51
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
3.28
1.75
Wolfsberger AC xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.07
Clean Sheet
17%
5.73
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
5%
18.38
9%
11.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.7 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.75 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
TSV Hartberg's recent record stands at 17W 16D 19L from 52 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-D in the last five.
Wolfsberger AC, meanwhile, have gone 22W 13D 17L across 52 games — 1.52 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 1.29 PPG, Wolfsberger AC on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, TSV Hartberg have managed 9W 7D 9L from their last 25 home games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wolfsberger AC's away record stands at 11W 7D 7L across their last 25 away games, a 1.60 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.58 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
TSV Hartberg (Home) vs Wolfsberger AC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC Form FAQs
What form are TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 17W 16D 19L in their last 52 games (1.29 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 22W 13D 17L in their last 52 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Wolfsberger AC's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.36 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: TSV Hartberg have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Sep 2023, when TSV Hartberg won Wolfsberger AC 0-3 TSV Hartberg.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Wolfsberger AC specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
2
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, TSV Hartberg have won 6, Wolfsberger AC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: TSV Hartberg 1-0 Wolfsberger AC.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 60%, Wolfsberger AC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (TSV Hartberg) and 56% (Wolfsberger AC).
On the defensive side: Wolfsberger AC in 32%; Wolfsberger AC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 48% of Wolfsberger AC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 56% of Wolfsberger AC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 76% of Wolfsberger AC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Wolfsberger AC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of TSV Hartberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat TSV Hartberg 0-3 at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.53 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.75 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. TSV Hartberg fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Wolfsberger AC outscored their 1.75 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.89 / defence 0.97 against Wolfsberger AC attack 1.51 / defence 1.19, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 31% | Draw 29% | Wolfsberger AC 40%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 58%, Wolfsberger AC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.29 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolfsberger AC win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.