TSV Hartberg 3-2 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
TSV Hartberg host Sturm Graz at PROfertil ARENA in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 October 2021 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
TSV Hartberg — All Games: 2W 3D 4L from 9 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 1.67 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 0W 1D 3L at PROfertil ARENA — 0.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.25 lags behind their overall 1.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at PROfertil ARENA this season.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Sturm Graz have recorded 6W 2D 1L from 9 outings — 2.22 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.67 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sturm Graz's away record: 3W 1D 0L from 4 road trips in Bundesliga this season (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.75 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Sturm Graz's 2.22 PPG return is 1.22 points per game ahead of TSV Hartberg's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
TSV Hartberg in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Sturm Graz in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 67%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — TSV Hartberg 78% and Sturm Graz 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (TSV Hartberg 44% | Sturm Graz 89%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.08 xG and Sturm Graz 2.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.952 / defence 1.437 | Sturm Graz attack 1.274 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.396. Sturm Graz have an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — the away xG of 2.56 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 9 TSV Hartberg games / 9 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 12% | Draw 21% | Sturm Graz 67%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 8.33 | Draw 4.76 | Sturm Graz 1.49. The model has a clear lean to Sturm Graz (67%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.08 / 2.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sturm Graz are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.63 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 75% | Sturm Graz 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 12% | Draw 21% | Sturm Graz 67% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 63% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.08 / Sturm Graz 2.56 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.952 / def 1.437 | Sturm Graz attack 1.274 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.396 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
2.56
Sturm Graz xG
63%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
TSV Hartberg 3 - 2 Sturm Graz.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 12% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 67% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-3D-4L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Sturm Graz (all comps): 6W-2D-1L in 9 | 2.22 PPG | GF 2.67 / GA 1.11 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Sturm Graz's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Sturm Graz's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 2.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.3%. Close behind: 0-2 (8.6%), 1-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
12%
8.51
21%
4.73
67%
1.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.6%
Away win
1 – 3
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
3.63
2.56
Sturm Graz xG
8.51
12%
Home win
4.73
21%
Draw
1.49
67%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
8%
12.88
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
1%
109.65
23%
4.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.4 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.6 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 2.56 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 3.63.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
TSV Hartberg's recent record stands at 2W 3D 4L from 9 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz, meanwhile, have gone 6W 2D 1L across 9 games — 2.22 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 1.22 — a real, if not enormous, edge over TSV Hartberg heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, TSV Hartberg have managed 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — 0.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.00 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Sturm Graz's away record stands at 3W 1D 0L across 4 trips, a 2.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 2.67 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: TSV Hartberg have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; Sturm Graz in 78%.
Last 9 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 games (1.00 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 6W 2D 1L in their last 9 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 0.25 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 2.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Sturm Graz specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
TSV Hartberg
3
Draws
7
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 0, Sturm Graz have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when TSV Hartberg 2-4 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — TSV Hartberg at 75%, Sturm Graz at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for TSV Hartberg and 75% for Sturm Graz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of TSV Hartberg's games and 75% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of TSV Hartberg's matches and 75% of Sturm Graz's.
Do TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as TSV Hartberg defy the odds to beat Sturm Graz 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat Sturm Graz 3-2 at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.08 xG and Sturm Graz 2.56 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. TSV Hartberg beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.95 / defence 1.44 against Sturm Graz attack 1.27 / defence 0.94, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 12% | Draw 21% | Sturm Graz 67%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a TSV Hartberg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 44%, Sturm Graz 89%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 78%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with TSV Hartberg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.