TSV Hartberg 1-3 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 35% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz encounter.

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Match Analysis

TSV Hartberg host Sturm Graz at PROfertil ARENA in Bundesliga (Championship Round - 4). Kick-off is Sunday 14 April 2024 at 14:30 UK time.

Form Guide

TSV Hartberg — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, TSV Hartberg have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — TSV Hartberg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Sturm Graz have recorded 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Sturm Graz's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Sturm Graz's 1.90 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of TSV Hartberg's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for TSV Hartberg, 0 for Sturm Graz and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Mar 2024, ended TSV Hartberg 1–1 Sturm Graz — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

TSV Hartberg in-play and half-time data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Sturm Graz in-play and half-time data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 53% versus Sturm Graz 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 61% | Sturm Graz 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: TSV Hartberg surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Sturm Graz have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 75% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.06 xG and Sturm Graz 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.965 / defence 0.933 | Sturm Graz attack 1.171 / defence 0.817. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.013. Data: built from TSV Hartberg's last 44 games and Sturm Graz's last 44.

Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 33% | Draw 32% | Sturm Graz 35%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 3.07 | Draw 3.10 | Sturm Graz 2.84. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Sturm Graz are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: TSV Hartberg 30% (last 10 home games) | Sturm Graz 70% (last 10 away games).

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