TSV Hartberg 1-2 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 53%, yet in-form TSV Hartberg provide a compelling counter-argument — this TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach meet at PROfertil ARENA in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 July 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
TSV Hartberg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SCR Altach (all games): 0W 0D 1L across 1 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.00 points per game. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. SCR Altach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. TSV Hartberg's 3.00 PPG return is 3.00 points per game ahead of SCR Altach's 0.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — TSV Hartberg have seen both teams score in just 0% of their games, SCR Altach in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 0.68 xG and SCR Altach 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.987 / defence 1.150 | SCR Altach attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.600 / away 1.520. Data: 1 TSV Hartberg games / 1 SCR Altach games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 14% | Draw 33% | SCR Altach 53%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 7.14 | Draw 3.03 | SCR Altach 1.89. SCR Altach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SCR Altach as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form TSV Hartberg (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SCR Altach if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jul 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 14% | Draw 33% | SCR Altach 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG TSV Hartberg 0.68 / SCR Altach 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.987 / def 1.150 | SCR Altach attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.600 / away 1.520 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.68
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.49
SCR Altach xG
42%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 31 July 2021 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
TSV Hartberg 1 - 2 SCR Altach.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach part of?
TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 14% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 53% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W. SCR Altach (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from TSV Hartberg's attack rating (0.99) and SCR Altach's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SCR Altach's attack (0.85x) against TSV Hartberg's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 1/1 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
14%
7.36
33%
3.00
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.6%
Away win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.68
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.17
1.49
SCR Altach xG
7.36
14%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
51%
1.98
Win to Nil
3%
32.54
27%
3.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 17.0 | 12.6 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.6 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 0.68 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.49 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, SCR Altach sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five. It's still early in the season for SCR Altach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
TSV Hartberg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
TSV Hartberg are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. TSV Hartberg's scoring rate against SCR Altach's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: TSV Hartberg have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; SCR Altach in 0%.
Defensively: TSV Hartberg have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
SCR Altach
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have TSV Hartberg or SCR Altach been keeping clean sheets recently?
TSV Hartberg have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, SCR Altach in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, TSV Hartberg have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
TSV Hartberg
6
Draws
0
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 4, SCR Altach have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when TSV Hartberg 0-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 0% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 0% of SCR Altach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SCR Altach edge out TSV Hartberg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SCR Altach beat TSV Hartberg 1-2 at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 2, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 0.68 xG and SCR Altach 1.49 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.99 / defence 1.15 against SCR Altach attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 14% | Draw 33% | SCR Altach 53%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 0%, SCR Altach 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, TSV Hartberg arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with SCR Altach winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. TSV Hartberg managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SCR Altach scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.