TSV Hartberg 1-2 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 41% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
TSV Hartberg welcome Red Bull Salzburg to Stadion Hartberg in Bundesliga (Championship Group - 25). Kick-off is Sunday 5 April 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, TSV Hartberg stand at 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Red Bull Salzburg have recorded 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Red Bull Salzburg's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: TSV Hartberg 1.20 PPG, Red Bull Salzburg 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Red Bull Salzburg have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against 0 for TSV Hartberg.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 1 Mar 2026, ended TSV Hartberg 0–0 Red Bull Salzburg — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. Red Bull Salzburg have won 5 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.7 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
TSV Hartberg trading profile (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Red Bull Salzburg trading profile (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 52% versus Red Bull Salzburg 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 43% | Red Bull Salzburg 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: TSV Hartberg surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Red Bull Salzburg have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.00 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.877 / defence 0.869 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.254 / defence 0.845. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Red Bull Salzburg have an above-average attack rating of 1.254, which lifts their away xG to 1.25. Data: built from TSV Hartberg's last 44 games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 44.
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 29% | Draw 30% | Red Bull Salzburg 41%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 3.49 | Draw 3.33 | Red Bull Salzburg 2.42. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Red Bull Salzburg 5 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: TSV Hartberg 50% (last 10 home games) | Red Bull Salzburg 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Group - 25 | Venue: Stadion Hartberg • Kick-off: Sunday 5 April 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 29% | Draw 30% | Red Bull Salzburg 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG TSV Hartberg 1.00 / Red Bull Salzburg 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.877 / def 0.869 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.254 / def 0.845 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Red Bull Salzburg xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg FAQs
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Stadion Hartberg.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
TSV Hartberg 1 - 2 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hartberg.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Bundesliga fixture (Championship Group - 25) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 29% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates TSV Hartberg's attack at 0.88x the league average against Red Bull Salzburg's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Red Bull Salzburg's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from TSV Hartberg's last 44 games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
29%
3.49
30%
3.33
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.25
1.25
Red Bull Salzburg xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
8%
12.19
15%
6.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.25 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 56 games, going 19W 21D 16L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-L.
On the other side, Red Bull Salzburg sit at 1.70 PPG from 56 outings (26W 17D 13L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 1.39 PPG, Red Bull Salzburg on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 10W 9D 8L across their last 27 home games, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Red Bull Salzburg have taken 1.48 points per game from their last 27 away games (10W 10D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 1.71 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
TSV Hartberg (Home) vs Red Bull Salzburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg Form FAQs
What form are TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 19W 21D 16L in their last 56 games (1.39 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 26W 17D 13L in their last 56 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.44 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 1.48 PPG.
Have TSV Hartberg or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
TSV Hartberg have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 1 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Mar 2024, when Red Bull Salzburg won Red Bull Salzburg 5-1 TSV Hartberg.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Red Bull Salzburg specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
7
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, TSV Hartberg have won 1, Red Bull Salzburg have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 August 2026: Red Bull Salzburg 1-0 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 59%, Red Bull Salzburg 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (TSV Hartberg) and 44% (Red Bull Salzburg).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of TSV Hartberg's games and 59% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 44% of Red Bull Salzburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 78% of Red Bull Salzburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Red Bull Salzburg edge out TSV Hartberg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat TSV Hartberg 1-2 at Stadion Hartberg, Championship Group - 25, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.00 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.25 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.88 / defence 0.87 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.25 / defence 0.84, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 29% | Draw 30% | Red Bull Salzburg 41%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 43%, Red Bull Salzburg 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.39 PPG, Red Bull Salzburg 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Red Bull Salzburg win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.