TSV Hartberg 2-3 Austria Klagenfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as TSV Hartberg face Austria Klagenfurt.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Austria Klagenfurt travel to PROfertil ARENA to take on TSV Hartberg in Bundesliga (Relegation Round - 1). The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 March 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, TSV Hartberg stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — TSV Hartberg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Austria Klagenfurt — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — TSV Hartberg at 1.00 PPG versus Austria Klagenfurt's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 8 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for TSV Hartberg, 3 for Austria Klagenfurt and 4 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 16 Feb 2025, ended TSV Hartberg 1–1 Austria Klagenfurt — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Austria Klagenfurt in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 57% versus Austria Klagenfurt 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 59% | Austria Klagenfurt 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: TSV Hartberg surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Austria Klagenfurt have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.62 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.831 / defence 1.077 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.757 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.199. Austria Klagenfurt's defence rating of 1.222 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing TSV Hartberg's projected output up. Austria Klagenfurt's attack rating of 0.757 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Data: built from TSV Hartberg's last 44 games and Austria Klagenfurt's last 44.
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 50% | Draw 30% | Austria Klagenfurt 20%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.01 | Draw 3.29 | Austria Klagenfurt 5.02. TSV Hartberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: TSV Hartberg 70% (last 10 home games) | Austria Klagenfurt 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 29 March 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 50% | Draw 30% | Austria Klagenfurt 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG TSV Hartberg 1.62 / Austria Klagenfurt 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.831 / def 1.077 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.757 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Austria Klagenfurt xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt FAQs
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 29 March 2025 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
TSV Hartberg 2 - 3 Austria Klagenfurt.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt is a Bundesliga fixture (Relegation Round - 1) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 50% chance of winning, Austria Klagenfurt a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Austria Klagenfurt's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Klagenfurt's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from TSV Hartberg's last 44 games and Austria Klagenfurt's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
50%
2.01
30%
3.29
20%
5.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.60
0.98
Austria Klagenfurt xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
5.02
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
4%
25.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.8 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 0.98 for Austria Klagenfurt, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, TSV Hartberg have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 18W 15D 21L record — D-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Austria Klagenfurt's form line: 14W 18D 22L from 54 games, 1.11 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 1.28 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, TSV Hartberg have posted 1.37 PPG from their last 27 home games (10W 7D 10L).
On the road, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 7W 7D 13L from their last 27 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Austria Klagenfurt are on 1.15 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
TSV Hartberg (Home) vs Austria Klagenfurt (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt Form FAQs
What form are TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 18W 15D 21L in their last 54 games (1.28 PPG), while Austria Klagenfurt have gone 14W 18D 22L in their last 54 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Austria Klagenfurt away?
TSV Hartberg's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.37 PPG; Austria Klagenfurt away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 23 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Aug 2023, when Austria Klagenfurt won TSV Hartberg 0-3 Austria Klagenfurt.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Austria Klagenfurt specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
TSV Hartberg
4
Draws
4
Austria Klagenfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, TSV Hartberg have won 2, Austria Klagenfurt have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 May 2025: Austria Klagenfurt 0-1 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt?
Austria Klagenfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 59%, Austria Klagenfurt 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (TSV Hartberg) and 52% (Austria Klagenfurt).
On the defensive side: Austria Klagenfurt in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Austria Klagenfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 41% of Austria Klagenfurt's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 52% of Austria Klagenfurt's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 74% of Austria Klagenfurt's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Austria Klagenfurt defy the odds to beat TSV Hartberg 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Klagenfurt beat TSV Hartberg 2-3 at PROfertil ARENA, Relegation Round - 1, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.62 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 0.98 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Austria Klagenfurt outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.83 / defence 1.08 against Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.76 / defence 1.22, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 50% | Draw 30% | Austria Klagenfurt 20%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Austria Klagenfurt win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 59%, Austria Klagenfurt 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.28 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Klagenfurt win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.