TSV Hartberg 0-3 Austria Klagenfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Klagenfurt at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as TSV Hartberg face Austria Klagenfurt.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Austria Klagenfurt travel to PROfertil ARENA to take on TSV Hartberg in Bundesliga (matchday 5). The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 August 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, TSV Hartberg stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Austria Klagenfurt — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — TSV Hartberg at 1.50 PPG versus Austria Klagenfurt's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of TSV Hartberg's games and 80% of Austria Klagenfurt's (from TSV Hartberg's last 10 home games and Austria Klagenfurt's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for TSV Hartberg, 2 for Austria Klagenfurt and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 12 Mar 2023, ended TSV Hartberg 0–1 Austria Klagenfurt — a Austria Klagenfurt win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Austria Klagenfurt in-play tendencies (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 56% versus Austria Klagenfurt 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 61% | Austria Klagenfurt 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.19 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 2.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 1.093 / defence 1.398 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.041 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.230 / away 1.441. TSV Hartberg's defence rating of 1.398 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Austria Klagenfurt's projected output up. Data: built from TSV Hartberg's last 26 games and Austria Klagenfurt's last 26. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 19% | Draw 25% | Austria Klagenfurt 56%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 5.30 | Draw 4.01 | Austria Klagenfurt 1.78. The model has a clear lean to Austria Klagenfurt (56%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.19 / 2.10) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Klagenfurt as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (TSV Hartberg's last 10 home games and Austria Klagenfurt's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: TSV Hartberg 60% (last 10 home games) | Austria Klagenfurt 80% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (TSV Hartberg 26 games, Austria Klagenfurt 26) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 5 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 27 August 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 19% | Draw 25% | Austria Klagenfurt 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG TSV Hartberg 1.19 / Austria Klagenfurt 2.10 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 1.093 / def 1.398 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.041 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.230 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: Austria Klagenfurt (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
2.10
Austria Klagenfurt xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt FAQs
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 27 August 2023 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
TSV Hartberg 0 - 3 Austria Klagenfurt.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 5) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 19% chance of winning, Austria Klagenfurt a 56% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Austria Klagenfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Austria Klagenfurt's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Klagenfurt's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 2.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from TSV Hartberg's last 26 games and Austria Klagenfurt's last 26, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Klagenfurt Win
19%
5.30
25%
4.01
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
0 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
3.29
2.10
Austria Klagenfurt xG
5.30
19%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
12%
8.15
31%
3.28
Win to Nil
2%
43.21
17%
5.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 2.10 for Austria Klagenfurt, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, TSV Hartberg have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 10W 8D 18L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Austria Klagenfurt's form line: 12W 8D 16L from 36 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 1.06 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, TSV Hartberg have posted 1.06 PPG from their last 18 home games (5W 4D 9L).
On the road, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 7W 3D 8L from their last 18 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Austria Klagenfurt are on 1.42 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Klagenfurt in 64%.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
Austria Klagenfurt
Early Season
TSV Hartberg (Home) vs Austria Klagenfurt (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
Austria Klagenfurt
Early Season
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt Form FAQs
What form are TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 10W 8D 18L in their last 36 games (1.06 PPG), while Austria Klagenfurt have gone 12W 8D 16L in their last 36 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Austria Klagenfurt away?
Austria Klagenfurt's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.06 PPG; Austria Klagenfurt away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 23 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Aug 2023, when Austria Klagenfurt won TSV Hartberg 0-3 Austria Klagenfurt.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Austria Klagenfurt specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
TSV Hartberg
4
Draws
4
Austria Klagenfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, TSV Hartberg have won 2, Austria Klagenfurt have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 May 2025: Austria Klagenfurt 0-1 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt?
Austria Klagenfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — TSV Hartberg at 61%, Austria Klagenfurt at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for TSV Hartberg and 83% for Austria Klagenfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 72% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Austria Klagenfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of TSV Hartberg's games and 78% of Austria Klagenfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of TSV Hartberg's matches and 83% of Austria Klagenfurt's.
Do TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 78% of Austria Klagenfurt's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Austria Klagenfurt run riot with a 0-3 hammering of TSV Hartberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Klagenfurt beat TSV Hartberg 0-3 at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.19 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 2.10 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. TSV Hartberg fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Austria Klagenfurt outscored their 2.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 1.09 / defence 1.40 against Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.04 / defence 0.88, drawn from 26/26 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 19% | Draw 25% | Austria Klagenfurt 56%, with Austria Klagenfurt to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 61%, Austria Klagenfurt 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.06 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Klagenfurt win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.