Sturm Graz 2-0 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

TSV Hartberg travel to Merkur Arena to take on Sturm Graz in Bundesliga (matchday 2). The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 August 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Sturm Graz stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

In front of their own supporters, Sturm Graz have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across their last 10 games, TSV Hartberg have recorded 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

TSV Hartberg's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Sturm Graz carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Sturm Graz have won 1, TSV Hartberg 0, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 May 2024, ended Sturm Graz 1–1 TSV Hartberg — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Sturm Graz in-play tendencies (last 33 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (last 33 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 48% versus TSV Hartberg 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 42% | TSV Hartberg 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.60 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.043 / defence 0.946 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.022 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.118. Data: built from Sturm Graz's last 23 games and TSV Hartberg's last 23. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 49% | Draw 25% | TSV Hartberg 26%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.03 | Draw 4.01 | TSV Hartberg 3.89. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sturm Graz 20% (last 10 home games) | TSV Hartberg 80% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Sturm Graz 23 games, TSV Hartberg 23) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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