Sturm Graz 1-1 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Austria Vienna at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Austria Vienna make the trip to Merkur-Arena to face Sturm Graz in Bundesliga, Championship Group - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Sturm Graz (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Sturm Graz's home record at Merkur-Arena: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Austria Vienna have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Austria Vienna's away record: 5W 0D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Sturm Graz. A 0.60 PPG lead over Austria Vienna (1.70 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Austria Vienna in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Austria Vienna, who have claimed 5 wins from 9 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2026, ended 5–2 with Sturm Graz winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Austria Vienna have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Sturm Graz — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Austria Vienna — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 58% versus Austria Vienna 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 55% | Austria Vienna 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.22 xG and Austria Vienna 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 0.966 / defence 0.930 | Austria Vienna attack 1.204 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Austria Vienna have an above-average attack strength of 1.204 — the away xG of 1.28 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Sturm Graz games / 44 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 34% | Draw 28% | Austria Vienna 37%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Austria Vienna 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Austria Vienna lead the H2H ledger, but Sturm Graz carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Austria Vienna are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sturm Graz (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 60% | Austria Vienna 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Group - 29 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Apr 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 34% | Draw 28% | Austria Vienna 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Sturm Graz 1.22 / Austria Vienna 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 0.966 / def 0.930 | Austria Vienna attack 1.204 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Austria Vienna xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Merkur-Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Sturm Graz 1 - 1 Austria Vienna.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna part of?
Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna is a Championship Group - 29 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 34% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna?
Record (9 meetings): Sturm Graz 2W | Draws 2 | Austria Vienna 5W.
What form are Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-D-D. Austria Vienna (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sturm Graz's attack at 0.97x the league average against Austria Vienna's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Austria Vienna's attack (1.20x) against Sturm Graz's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
34%
2.92
28%
3.52
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.50
1.28
Austria Vienna xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
9%
10.56
11%
9.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.5 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.28 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 33W 12D 15L from 60 games, a 1.85 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-D in the last five.
Austria Vienna, meanwhile, have gone 30W 10D 20L across 60 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.85 PPG for Sturm Graz against 1.67 for Austria Vienna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 16W 7D 7L from 30 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Austria Vienna's away record stands at 15W 4D 11L across 30 trips, a 1.63 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.47 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Current Season
Austria Vienna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 33W 12D 15L in their last 60 games (1.85 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 30W 10D 20L in their last 60 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Austria Vienna away?
Sturm Graz's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 1.83 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or Austria Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Austria Vienna in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won 0-3 on 30 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sturm Graz have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Austria Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sturm Graz
3
Draws
5
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 2, Austria Vienna have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-1 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 57%, Austria Vienna 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sturm Graz) and 50% (Austria Vienna).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Austria Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Sturm Graz's games and 57% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sturm Graz's recent games and 50% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Merkur-Arena, Championship Group - 29, as Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.22 xG and Austria Vienna 1.28 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 0.97 / defence 0.93 against Austria Vienna attack 1.20 / defence 0.94, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 34% | Draw 28% | Austria Vienna 37%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 55%, Austria Vienna 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sturm Graz 1.85 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.