Sturm Graz 1-2 Austria Klagenfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merkur Arena plays host to Sturm Graz versus Austria Klagenfurt in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Saturday 25 February 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sturm Graz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sturm Graz's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Merkur Arena this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Austria Klagenfurt (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Klagenfurt's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Sturm Graz's favour (2.40 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sturm Graz lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2022, ended 2–0 with Sturm Graz winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sturm Graz — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games).
Austria Klagenfurt — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sturm Graz 64% and Austria Klagenfurt 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 64% | Austria Klagenfurt 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.81 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.087 / defence 0.763 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.110 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.383. Austria Klagenfurt bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing Sturm Graz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Sturm Graz's defence rating of 0.763 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Sturm Graz games / 40 Austria Klagenfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 52% | Draw 23% | Austria Klagenfurt 25%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Austria Klagenfurt 4.00. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 50% | Austria Klagenfurt 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Feb 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 52% | Draw 23% | Austria Klagenfurt 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Sturm Graz 1.81 / Austria Klagenfurt 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.087 / def 0.763 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.110 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Austria Klagenfurt xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 25 February 2023 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Sturm Graz 1 - 2 Austria Klagenfurt.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt part of?
Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 52% chance of winning, Austria Klagenfurt a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt?
Record (1 meetings): Sturm Graz 1W | Draws 0 | Austria Klagenfurt 0W.
What form are Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sturm Graz's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Austria Klagenfurt's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. Flip it around — Austria Klagenfurt's attack (1.11x) against Sturm Graz's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
52%
1.91
23%
4.33
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.98
1.17
Austria Klagenfurt xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
16%
6.10
Win to Nil
16%
6.17
4%
24.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.8 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.17 for Austria Klagenfurt, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sturm Graz come into this having played 50 games, going 27W 14D 9L for 1.90 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-W. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Austria Klagenfurt sit at 1.14 PPG from 50 outings (14W 15D 21L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Austria Klagenfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of Austria Klagenfurt — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sturm Graz's home form reads 16W 5D 4L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Klagenfurt have taken 1.28 points per game from 25 outings (8W 8D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Austria Klagenfurt are on 1.40 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Austria Klagenfurt in 68%.
Last 50 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 27W 14D 9L in their last 50 games (1.90 PPG), while Austria Klagenfurt have gone 14W 15D 21L in their last 50 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Austria Klagenfurt away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.12 PPG; Austria Klagenfurt away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or Austria Klagenfurt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Austria Klagenfurt in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Sturm Graz go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won 7-0 on 23 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sturm Graz have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Austria Klagenfurt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Sturm Graz
1
Draws
1
Austria Klagenfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 8, Austria Klagenfurt have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2024, when Sturm Graz 7-0 Austria Klagenfurt.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Sturm Graz, 72% for Austria Klagenfurt — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Sturm Graz and 68% for Austria Klagenfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Austria Klagenfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Austria Klagenfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Sturm Graz's games and 72% of Austria Klagenfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Sturm Graz's matches and 68% of Austria Klagenfurt's.
Do Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Austria Klagenfurt in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Austria Klagenfurt defy the odds to beat Sturm Graz 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Klagenfurt beat Sturm Graz 1-2 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.81 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 1.17 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sturm Graz fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Austria Klagenfurt outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.09 / defence 0.76 against Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.11 / defence 1.23, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 52% | Draw 23% | Austria Klagenfurt 25%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Austria Klagenfurt win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 64%, Austria Klagenfurt 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Austria Klagenfurt winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.