SCR Altach 3-0 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 34% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SCR Altach face WSG Wattens.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SCR Altach and WSG Wattens meet at CASHPOINT Arena in Bundesliga (Relegation Round - 6). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 April 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
SCR Altach have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
At home, SCR Altach have gone 0W 5D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.00 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
WSG Wattens (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, WSG Wattens have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for SCR Altach, 3 for WSG Wattens and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 22 Apr 2025, ended SCR Altach 0–1 WSG Wattens — a WSG Wattens win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 49% versus WSG Wattens 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 42% | WSG Wattens 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.23 xG and WSG Wattens 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.763 / defence 0.995 | WSG Wattens attack 0.994 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.200. SCR Altach's attack rating of 0.763 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.23. Data: built from SCR Altach's last 44 games and WSG Wattens's last 44.
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 34% | Draw 34% | WSG Wattens 32%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.93 | Draw 2.96 | WSG Wattens 3.12. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SCR Altach's last 10 home games and WSG Wattens's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SCR Altach 60% (last 10 home games) | WSG Wattens 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 6 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 26 April 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 34% | Draw 34% | WSG Wattens 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG SCR Altach 1.23 / WSG Wattens 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.763 / def 0.995 | WSG Wattens attack 0.994 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.19
WSG Wattens xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens FAQs
What time does SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens kick off?
SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 26 April 2025 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens?
SCR Altach 3 - 0 WSG Wattens.
Where is SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens part of?
SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens is a Bundesliga fixture (Relegation Round - 6) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 34% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 32% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both SCR Altach and WSG Wattens will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SCR Altach's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against WSG Wattens's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — WSG Wattens's attack (0.99x) against SCR Altach's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from SCR Altach's last 44 games and WSG Wattens's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
34%
2.93
34%
2.96
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.42
1.19
WSG Wattens xG
2.93
34%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
10%
9.59
9%
10.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.6 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.0 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.19 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SCR Altach's recent record stands at 10W 21D 28L from 59 games, a 0.86 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five.
WSG Wattens, meanwhile, have gone 13W 13D 33L across 59 games — 0.88 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.86 PPG for SCR Altach against 0.88 for WSG Wattens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, SCR Altach have managed 4W 13D 12L from their last 29 home games — 0.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
WSG Wattens's away record stands at 6W 4D 19L across their last 29 away games, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
SCR Altach are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 0.95 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
WSG Wattens
Blended
SCR Altach (Home) vs WSG Wattens (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SCR Altach
Blended
WSG Wattens
Blended
❓ SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens Form FAQs
What form are SCR Altach and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 10W 21D 28L in their last 59 games (0.86 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 13W 13D 33L in their last 59 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or WSG Wattens away?
SCR Altach's home record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 0.86 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between SCR Altach and WSG Wattens, the earliest from May 2024. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 7 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SCR Altach won SCR Altach 3-0 WSG Wattens on 26 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SCR Altach have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against WSG Wattens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
SCR Altach
3
Draws
3
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and WSG Wattens?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, SCR Altach have won 4, WSG Wattens have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and WSG Wattens last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 August 2026: SCR Altach 3-1 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and WSG Wattens?
SCR Altach have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 52%, WSG Wattens 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (SCR Altach) and 59% (WSG Wattens).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach have failed to score in 38% of games; WSG Wattens in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SCR Altach vs WSG Wattens Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SCR Altach and WSG Wattens matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 48% of WSG Wattens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are SCR Altach and WSG Wattens matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of SCR Altach's recent games and 59% of WSG Wattens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and WSG Wattens matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 69% of WSG Wattens's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SCR Altach run riot with a 3-0 hammering of WSG Wattens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SCR Altach beat WSG Wattens 3-0 at CASHPOINT Arena, Relegation Round - 6, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.23 xG and WSG Wattens 1.19 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. SCR Altach beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. WSG Wattens landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.76 / defence 0.99 against WSG Wattens attack 0.99 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 34% | Draw 34% | WSG Wattens 32%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 34%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 42%, WSG Wattens 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SCR Altach 0.86 PPG, WSG Wattens 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SCR Altach win broke the near-deadlock. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.