SCR Altach 0-2 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg meet at CASHPOINT Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 October 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
SCR Altach's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SCR Altach have posted 1W 2D 3L at CASHPOINT Arena — 0.83 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
TSV Hartberg (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L W D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's away record: 2W 3D 1L from 6 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SCR Altach have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, TSV Hartberg in 83%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
SCR Altach — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
TSV Hartberg — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SCR Altach 50% and TSV Hartberg 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 42% | TSV Hartberg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.12 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.723 / defence 1.336 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.065 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.259 / away 1.349. SCR Altach's attack strength of 0.723 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. TSV Hartberg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing SCR Altach's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 SCR Altach games / 12 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 20% | Draw 26% | TSV Hartberg 54%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 5.00 | Draw 3.85 | TSV Hartberg 1.85. TSV Hartberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, TSV Hartberg are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 67% | TSV Hartberg 83% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 20% | Draw 26% | TSV Hartberg 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG SCR Altach 1.12 / TSV Hartberg 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.723 / def 1.336 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.065 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.259 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.92
TSV Hartberg xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
SCR Altach 0 - 2 TSV Hartberg.
Where is SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg part of?
SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 20% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 54% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SCR Altach's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (1.06x) against SCR Altach's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.92.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
20%
5.00
26%
3.89
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
3.04
1.92
TSV Hartberg xG
5.00
20%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
15%
6.82
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
3%
34.12
18%
5.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.92 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 12 outings, SCR Altach have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 3W 4D 5L record — D-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
TSV Hartberg's form line: 3W 5D 4L from 12 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-D. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for SCR Altach against 1.17 for TSV Hartberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SCR Altach have posted 0.83 PPG from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L).
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 2W 3D 1L from 6 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, TSV Hartberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SCR Altach are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.75 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: TSV Hartberg in 83%.
Last 12 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 3W 4D 5L in their last 12 games (1.08 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 3W 5D 4L in their last 12 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or TSV Hartberg away?
TSV Hartberg's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 0.83 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SCR Altach have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
SCR Altach
6
Draws
4
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 0, TSV Hartberg have won 4, and 6 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when TSV Hartberg 0-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for SCR Altach, 83% for TSV Hartberg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SCR Altach) and 50% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play TSV Hartberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of SCR Altach's games and 83% of TSV Hartberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of SCR Altach's recent games and 50% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
TSV Hartberg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SCR Altach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat SCR Altach 0-2 at CASHPOINT Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.12 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.92 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. SCR Altach fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.72 / defence 1.34 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.06 / defence 1.23, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 20% | Draw 26% | TSV Hartberg 54%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 42%, TSV Hartberg 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SCR Altach 1.08 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.