SCR Altach 1-2 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 36%, yet in-form TSV Hartberg provide a compelling counter-argument — this SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg meet at CASHPOINT Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 February 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
SCR Altach's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SCR Altach have posted 3W 3D 4L at CASHPOINT Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — SCR Altach are significantly better at CASHPOINT Arena than their overall form suggests.
TSV Hartberg (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
TSV Hartberg arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for SCR Altach, 1 for TSV Hartberg and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
SCR Altach — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
TSV Hartberg — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 47% versus TSV Hartberg 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 47% | TSV Hartberg 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.30 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.886 / defence 0.921 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.148 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.191. Data: 41 SCR Altach games / 41 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 36% | Draw 30% | TSV Hartberg 34%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | TSV Hartberg 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SCR Altach are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form TSV Hartberg (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SCR Altach if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: SCR Altach 40% | TSV Hartberg 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 36% | Draw 30% | TSV Hartberg 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG SCR Altach 1.30 / TSV Hartberg 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.886 / def 0.921 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.148 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.26
TSV Hartberg xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
SCR Altach 1 - 2 TSV Hartberg.
Where is SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg part of?
SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 36% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg?
Record (3 meetings): SCR Altach 0W | Draws 2 | TSV Hartberg 1W.
What form are SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SCR Altach's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (1.15x) against SCR Altach's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
36%
2.79
30%
3.31
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.56
1.26
TSV Hartberg xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
10%
9.84
9%
10.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.7 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.26 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 51 outings, SCR Altach have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 10W 15D 26L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
TSV Hartberg's form line: 17W 12D 22L from 51 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.88 PPG for SCR Altach against 1.24 for TSV Hartberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SCR Altach have posted 1.00 PPG from 25 outings (6W 7D 12L).
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 7W 6D 12L from 25 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SCR Altach are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.35 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 10W 15D 26L in their last 51 games (0.88 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 17W 12D 22L in their last 51 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or TSV Hartberg away?
TSV Hartberg's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 1.00 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.08 PPG.
Have SCR Altach or TSV Hartberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SCR Altach have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, TSV Hartberg in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SCR Altach have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
SCR Altach
6
Draws
4
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 0, TSV Hartberg have won 4, and 6 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when TSV Hartberg 0-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 48%, TSV Hartberg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (SCR Altach) and 60% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg in 32%; SCR Altach have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 52% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of SCR Altach's recent games and 60% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as TSV Hartberg defy the odds to beat SCR Altach 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat SCR Altach 1-2 at CASHPOINT Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.30 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.26 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.89 / defence 0.92 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.15 / defence 1.15, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 36% | Draw 30% | TSV Hartberg 34%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual TSV Hartberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 47%, TSV Hartberg 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SCR Altach 0.88 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.