SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Austria Vienna travel to Cashpoint-Arena to take on SCR Altach. The game is scheduled for Friday 23 October 2026, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SCR Altach stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SCR Altach at Cashpoint-Arena this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — SCR Altach are significantly better at Cashpoint-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Austria Vienna have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Austria Vienna have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SCR Altach at 0.90 PPG versus Austria Vienna's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SCR Altach register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Austria Vienna in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, SCR Altach have won 3, Austria Vienna 4, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with SCR Altach winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SCR Altach trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Austria Vienna trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 44% versus Austria Vienna 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 46% | Austria Vienna 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 2.06 xG and Austria Vienna 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.985 / defence 0.977 | Austria Vienna attack 1.105 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.806 / away 1.304. Data: 31 SCR Altach games / 31 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 50% | Draw 26% | Austria Vienna 24%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Austria Vienna 4.17. SCR Altach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SCR Altach are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SCR Altach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.47 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 60% | Austria Vienna 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Cashpoint-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 50% | Draw 26% | Austria Vienna 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG SCR Altach 2.06 / Austria Vienna 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.985 / def 0.977 | Austria Vienna attack 1.105 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.806 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Austria Vienna xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna kick off?
SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Friday 23 October 2026 at Cashpoint-Arena.
Where is SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Cashpoint-Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna part of?
SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 50% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both SCR Altach and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Austria Vienna?
Record (10 meetings): SCR Altach 3W | Draws 3 | Austria Vienna 4W.
What form are SCR Altach and Austria Vienna in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Austria Vienna (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SCR Altach's attack rating (0.98) and Austria Vienna's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 2.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Vienna's attack versus SCR Altach's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
50%
1.99
26%
3.86
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
6.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
3.47
1.41
Austria Vienna xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.15
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
13%
7.87
Win to Nil
12%
8.12
3%
33.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.41 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SCR Altach come into this having played 41 games, going 12W 12D 17L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Austria Vienna sit at 1.32 PPG from 41 outings (16W 6D 19L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SCR Altach on 1.17 PPG, Austria Vienna on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
SCR Altach's home form reads 10W 6D 4L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — SCR Altach are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Austria Vienna have taken 1.45 points per game from 20 outings (9W 2D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
SCR Altach are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.32 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 12W 12D 17L in their last 41 games (1.17 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 16W 6D 19L in their last 41 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Austria Vienna away?
SCR Altach's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 1.80 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Dec 2024, when Austria Vienna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SCR Altach's record when hosting Austria Vienna specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
SCR Altach
3
Draws
4
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 3, Austria Vienna have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when SCR Altach 2-1 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 60%, Austria Vienna 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (SCR Altach) and 65% (Austria Vienna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SCR Altach keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Austria Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of SCR Altach's games and 65% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of SCR Altach's matches and 65% of Austria Vienna's.
Do SCR Altach and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.