SCR Altach 1-1 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 44%, yet in-form Austria Vienna provide a compelling counter-argument — this SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

Austria Vienna travel to CASHPOINT Arena to take on SCR Altach in Bundesliga (matchday 5). The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 September 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, SCR Altach stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

SCR Altach at home: 1W 6D 3L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Austria Vienna have recorded 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Austria Vienna have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Austria Vienna — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, SCR Altach have won 1, Austria Vienna 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 26 Apr 2024, ended SCR Altach 2–2 Austria Vienna — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

SCR Altach trading profile (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Austria Vienna trading profile (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 47% versus Austria Vienna 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 44% | Austria Vienna 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.30 xG and Austria Vienna 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.874 / defence 0.970 | Austria Vienna attack 0.897 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.059. Data: built from SCR Altach's last 26 games and Austria Vienna's last 26. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: SCR Altach 44% | Draw 30% | Austria Vienna 25%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.25 | Draw 3.33 | Austria Vienna 3.93. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, SCR Altach are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Austria Vienna (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SCR Altach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (SCR Altach's last 10 home games and Austria Vienna's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: SCR Altach 60% (last 10 home games) | Austria Vienna 50% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (SCR Altach 26 games, Austria Vienna 26) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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