SCR Altach 1-4 Austria Klagenfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Klagenfurt at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SCR Altach host Austria Klagenfurt at CASHPOINT Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 September 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SCR Altach have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SCR Altach have posted 2W 5D 3L at CASHPOINT Arena — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Austria Klagenfurt — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (SCR Altach) versus 0.90 (Austria Klagenfurt). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SCR Altach register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Austria Klagenfurt in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for SCR Altach, 2 for Austria Klagenfurt and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2022, ended 0–2 with Austria Klagenfurt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SCR Altach trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Austria Klagenfurt trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 42% versus Austria Klagenfurt 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 55% | Austria Klagenfurt 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.73 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.960 / defence 1.061 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.113 / defence 1.302. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.473. Austria Klagenfurt bring a strong defensive rating of 1.302 — this is suppressing SCR Altach's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 SCR Altach games / 30 Austria Klagenfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 37% | Draw 25% | Austria Klagenfurt 38%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Austria Klagenfurt 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Klagenfurt as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Klagenfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.47 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 60% | Austria Klagenfurt 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 37% | Draw 25% | Austria Klagenfurt 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 69% | xG SCR Altach 1.73 / Austria Klagenfurt 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.960 / def 1.061 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.113 / def 1.302 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.473 • Poisson stance: Austria Klagenfurt (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Austria Klagenfurt xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt kick off?
SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt?
SCR Altach 1 - 4 Austria Klagenfurt.
Where is SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt part of?
SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 37% chance of winning, Austria Klagenfurt a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Austria Klagenfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both SCR Altach and Austria Klagenfurt will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Austria Klagenfurt?
Record (2 meetings): SCR Altach 0W | Draws 0 | Austria Klagenfurt 2W.
What form are SCR Altach and Austria Klagenfurt in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SCR Altach's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Austria Klagenfurt's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Klagenfurt's attack versus SCR Altach's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.2%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Klagenfurt Win
37%
2.69
25%
3.95
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
3.47
1.74
Austria Klagenfurt xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.25
Clean Sheet
18%
5.70
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
7%
15.35
7%
14.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.4 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Austria Klagenfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.74 for Austria Klagenfurt, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SCR Altach's recent record stands at 8W 10D 22L from 40 games, a 0.85 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Klagenfurt, meanwhile, have gone 10W 14D 16L across 40 games — 1.10 PPG, with W-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Austria Klagenfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SCR Altach on 0.85 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SCR Altach have managed 3W 7D 10L from 20 games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Austria Klagenfurt's away record stands at 5W 7D 8L across 20 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
SCR Altach are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Austria Klagenfurt are on 1.35 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Klagenfurt in 68%.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Austria Klagenfurt in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 8W 10D 22L in their last 40 games (0.85 PPG), while Austria Klagenfurt have gone 10W 14D 16L in their last 40 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Austria Klagenfurt away?
Austria Klagenfurt's away record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 0.80 PPG; Austria Klagenfurt away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2021, when Austria Klagenfurt won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SCR Altach's record when hosting Austria Klagenfurt specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
SCR Altach
4
Draws
5
Austria Klagenfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Austria Klagenfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 1, Austria Klagenfurt have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Austria Klagenfurt last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2025, when SCR Altach 0-0 Austria Klagenfurt.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Austria Klagenfurt?
Austria Klagenfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 50%, Austria Klagenfurt 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (SCR Altach) and 65% (Austria Klagenfurt). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SCR Altach have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Austria Klagenfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Austria Klagenfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of SCR Altach's games and 70% of Austria Klagenfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of SCR Altach's matches and 65% of Austria Klagenfurt's.
Do SCR Altach and Austria Klagenfurt tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Austria Klagenfurt in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Austria Klagenfurt run riot with a 1-4 hammering of SCR Altach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Klagenfurt beat SCR Altach 1-4 at CASHPOINT Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.73 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 1.74 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Austria Klagenfurt outscored their 1.74 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.96 / defence 1.06 against Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.11 / defence 1.30, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 37% | Draw 25% | Austria Klagenfurt 38%, with Austria Klagenfurt to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 55%, Austria Klagenfurt 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SCR Altach 0.85 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Klagenfurt win broke the near-deadlock. SCR Altach (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.