SCR Altach 0-4 Austria Klagenfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SCR Altach host Austria Klagenfurt at CASHPOINT Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 September 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SCR Altach have gone 2W 3D 3L from 8 outings — a 1.12 PPG return. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 0.88 goals per game and conceding 1.12 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SCR Altach have posted 1W 1D 2L at CASHPOINT Arena — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Austria Klagenfurt — All Games: 2W 3D 3L from 8 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.12 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.38 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 88% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 0W 1D 3L from 4 away outings — 0.25 PPG. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 1.12 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.12 PPG (SCR Altach) versus 1.12 (Austria Klagenfurt). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
SCR Altach trading profile (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Austria Klagenfurt trading profile (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SCR Altach 62% and Austria Klagenfurt 88% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 50% | Austria Klagenfurt 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.31 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.793 / defence 1.201 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.751 / defence 1.416. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.271. SCR Altach's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Austria Klagenfurt bring a strong defensive rating of 1.416 — this is suppressing SCR Altach's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 SCR Altach games / 8 Austria Klagenfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 37% | Draw 35% | Austria Klagenfurt 29%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.70 | Draw 2.86 | Austria Klagenfurt 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SCR Altach as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SCR Altach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 75% | Austria Klagenfurt 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 37% | Draw 35% | Austria Klagenfurt 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 54% | xG SCR Altach 1.31 / Austria Klagenfurt 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.793 / def 1.201 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.751 / def 1.416 | league avg home 1.171 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Austria Klagenfurt xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt kick off?
SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt?
SCR Altach 0 - 4 Austria Klagenfurt.
Where is SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt part of?
SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 37% chance of winning, Austria Klagenfurt a 29% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both SCR Altach and Austria Klagenfurt will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Austria Klagenfurt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SCR Altach and Austria Klagenfurt in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 2W-3D-3L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 1.12 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 2W-3D-3L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SCR Altach's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Austria Klagenfurt's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Klagenfurt's attack versus SCR Altach's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
37%
2.73
35%
2.87
29%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.46
1.15
Austria Klagenfurt xG
2.73
37%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
3.51
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
12%
8.59
8%
13.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Austria Klagenfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.15 for Austria Klagenfurt, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SCR Altach's recent record stands at 2W 3D 3L from 8 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Klagenfurt, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 3L across 8 games — 1.12 PPG, with D-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Austria Klagenfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SCR Altach on 1.12 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SCR Altach have managed 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Austria Klagenfurt's away record stands at 0W 1D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Austria Klagenfurt's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SCR Altach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SCR Altach are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Austria Klagenfurt are on 1.38 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SCR Altach have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Austria Klagenfurt in 88%.
Last 8 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Austria Klagenfurt in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 games (1.12 PPG), while Austria Klagenfurt have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Austria Klagenfurt away?
SCR Altach's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 1.00 PPG; Austria Klagenfurt away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2021, when Austria Klagenfurt won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SCR Altach's record when hosting Austria Klagenfurt specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
SCR Altach
4
Draws
5
Austria Klagenfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Austria Klagenfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 1, Austria Klagenfurt have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Austria Klagenfurt last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2025, when SCR Altach 0-0 Austria Klagenfurt.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Austria Klagenfurt?
Austria Klagenfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Austria Klagenfurt see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SCR Altach at 75%, Austria Klagenfurt at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for SCR Altach and 75% for Austria Klagenfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Austria Klagenfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Austria Klagenfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of SCR Altach's games and 75% of Austria Klagenfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SCR Altach vs Austria Klagenfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of SCR Altach's matches and 75% of Austria Klagenfurt's.
Do SCR Altach and Austria Klagenfurt tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Austria Klagenfurt in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Austria Klagenfurt run riot with a 0-4 hammering of SCR Altach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Klagenfurt beat SCR Altach 0-4 at CASHPOINT Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.31 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 1.15 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. SCR Altach fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Austria Klagenfurt outscored their 1.15 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.79 / defence 1.20 against Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.75 / defence 1.42, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 37% | Draw 35% | Austria Klagenfurt 29%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Austria Klagenfurt win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 50%, Austria Klagenfurt 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SCR Altach 1.12 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Klagenfurt win broke the near-deadlock. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.