Ried 1-0 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ried vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
josko ARENA plays host to Ried versus TSV Hartberg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 20 November 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ried have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ried at josko ARENA this season: 3W 3D 0L from 6 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Ried are significantly better at josko ARENA than their overall form suggests.
TSV Hartberg (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 1L across 7 road games this term (1.71 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Ried against 1.30 for TSV Hartberg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Ried register both teams scoring in 83% of relevant games, TSV Hartberg in 71%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Ried 0W, TSV Hartberg 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Ried — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
TSV Hartberg — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ried 79% and TSV Hartberg 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ried 64% | TSV Hartberg 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 1.54 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 1.114 / defence 1.144 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.028 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.432. Data: 14 Ried games / 14 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ried 34% | Draw 26% | TSV Hartberg 40%. Fair-value odds: Ried 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | TSV Hartberg 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, TSV Hartberg are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ried 83% | TSV Hartberg 71% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ried vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: josko ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ried 34% | Draw 26% | TSV Hartberg 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Ried 1.54 / TSV Hartberg 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Ried attack 1.114 / def 1.144 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.028 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Ried xG
Expected Goals
1.69
TSV Hartberg xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ried vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Ried vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at josko ARENA.
What was the final score in Ried vs TSV Hartberg?
Ried 1 - 0 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Ried vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at josko ARENA.
What competition is Ried vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Ried vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Ried vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Ried a 34% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ried vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Ried and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Ried vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and TSV Hartberg?
Record (1 meetings): Ried 0W | Draws 1 | TSV Hartberg 0W.
What form are Ried and TSV Hartberg in?
Ried (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ried's attack rating (1.11) and TSV Hartberg's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (1.03x) against Ried's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
34%
2.95
26%
3.84
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Ried xG
Total xG
3.23
1.69
TSV Hartberg xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
19%
5.39
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
6%
15.91
9%
11.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.3 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ried vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Ried and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Ried and 1.69 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Ried vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ried come into this having played 14 games, going 4W 5D 5L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-W. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 1.21 PPG from 14 outings (4W 5D 5L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Ried against 1.21 for TSV Hartberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Ried's home form reads 3W 3D 0L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Ried are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, TSV Hartberg have taken 1.50 points per game from 6 outings (2W 3D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ried come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ried are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.64 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ried have seen both teams score in 79% of their recent games; TSV Hartberg in 71%.
Last 14 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ried
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ried and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Ried have gone 4W 5D 5L in their last 14 games (1.21 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 4W 5D 5L in their last 14 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ried at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Ried's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ried at home: 2.00 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
TSV Hartberg go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ried have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Ried
3
Draws
6
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Ried have won 1, TSV Hartberg have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ried and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when TSV Hartberg 2-0 Ried.
Who has won more matches between Ried and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Ried, 83% for TSV Hartberg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Ried) and 50% (TSV Hartberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ried home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ried play TSV Hartberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Ried's games and 83% of TSV Hartberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ried vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Ried's matches and 50% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Ried and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Ried have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ried defy the odds to beat TSV Hartberg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ried beat TSV Hartberg 1-0 at josko ARENA, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.54 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.69 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. TSV Hartberg landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 1.11 / defence 1.14 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.03 / defence 1.10, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ried 34% | Draw 26% | TSV Hartberg 40%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Ried win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 64%, TSV Hartberg 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ried's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did not.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ried 1.21 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ried win broke the near-deadlock. Ried (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.