Ried 1-2 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ried at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ried vs SCR Altach encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
josko ARENA plays host to Ried versus SCR Altach in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 19 March 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ried's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at josko ARENA, Ried have gone 5W 5D 0L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Ried are significantly better at josko ARENA than their overall form suggests.
SCR Altach (all games): 0W 1D 9L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SCR Altach away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Ried's 1.50 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of SCR Altach's 0.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Ried half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
SCR Altach half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 65% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ried 74% versus SCR Altach 30%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ried 61% | SCR Altach 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 1.93 xG and SCR Altach 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 1.184 / defence 1.284 | SCR Altach attack 0.532 / defence 1.418. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.236. SCR Altach bring a strong defensive rating of 1.418 — this is suppressing Ried's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Ried games / 22 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ried 63% | Draw 21% | SCR Altach 16%. Fair-value odds: Ried 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | SCR Altach 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Ried (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ried as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ried 80% | SCR Altach 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ried vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: josko ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ried 63% | Draw 21% | SCR Altach 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 49% | xG Ried 1.93 / SCR Altach 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Ried attack 1.184 / def 1.284 | SCR Altach attack 0.532 / def 1.418 | league avg home 1.152 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Ried (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Ried xG
Expected Goals
0.84
SCR Altach xG
49%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ried vs SCR Altach kick off?
Ried vs SCR Altach kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at josko ARENA.
What was the final score in Ried vs SCR Altach?
Ried 1 - 2 SCR Altach.
Where is Ried vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at josko ARENA.
What competition is Ried vs SCR Altach part of?
Ried vs SCR Altach is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Ried vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Ried a 63% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Ried the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ried vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ried and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will Ried vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and SCR Altach?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ried and SCR Altach in?
Ried (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. SCR Altach (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ried's attack at 1.18x the league average against SCR Altach's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SCR Altach's attack (0.53x) against Ried's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ried Win
63%
1.59
21%
4.69
16%
6.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Ried xG
Total xG
2.78
0.84
SCR Altach xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
6.37
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
14%
6.92
Win to Nil
27%
3.69
2%
44.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 10.1 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ried vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Ried and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Ried and 0.84 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Ried vs SCR Altach?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ried's recent record stands at 7W 8D 8L from 23 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SCR Altach, meanwhile, have gone 3W 5D 15L across 23 games — 0.61 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ried by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SCR Altach heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ried have managed 6W 5D 0L from 11 games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Ried are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SCR Altach's away record stands at 2W 2D 7L across 11 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ried come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ried are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.43 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ried have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ried
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ried and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Ried have gone 7W 8D 8L in their last 23 games (1.26 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 3W 5D 15L in their last 23 (0.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ried at home or SCR Altach away?
Ried's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ried at home: 2.09 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ried won 3-0 on 13 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ried have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ried
2
Draws
5
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, Ried have won 3, SCR Altach have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ried and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when SCR Altach 2-0 Ried.
Who has won more matches between Ried and SCR Altach?
SCR Altach have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ried 82%, SCR Altach 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Ried) and 46% (SCR Altach). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SCR Altach in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ried home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ried play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 82% of Ried's recent matches and 27% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ried vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Ried's matches and 46% of SCR Altach's.
Do Ried and SCR Altach tend to score early?
Ried have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SCR Altach defy the odds to beat Ried 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SCR Altach beat Ried 1-2 at josko ARENA, Relegation Round - 2, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.93 xG and SCR Altach 0.84 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Ried fell 0.9 short of their projected output. SCR Altach outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 1.18 / defence 1.28 against SCR Altach attack 0.53 / defence 1.42, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ried 63% | Draw 21% | SCR Altach 16%, with Ried to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a SCR Altach win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 61%, SCR Altach 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ried's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
SCR Altach's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ried arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.61. Form was overturned, with SCR Altach winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ried (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.45 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.