Ried 1-1 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lask Linz at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ried vs Lask Linz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lask Linz make the trip to Innviertel Arena to face Ried in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ried have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ried's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 3L across 9 games at Innviertel Arena this term (1.56 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Lask Linz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lask Linz's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Lask Linz are 0.80 PPG clear of Ried in recent Bundesliga fixtures (2.60 vs 1.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Ried, 1 for Lask Linz and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 3–1 with Ried winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Ried goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Lask Linz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ried 44% versus Lask Linz 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ried 50% | Lask Linz 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 1.17 xG and Lask Linz 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 0.918 / defence 0.961 | Lask Linz attack 1.069 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.278. Data: 18 Ried games / 40 Lask Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ried 33% | Draw 27% | Lask Linz 40%. Fair-value odds: Ried 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Lask Linz 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Ried dominate the H2H record, yet Lask Linz are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Lask Linz as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lask Linz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Ried 33% | Lask Linz 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ried vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Innviertel Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ried 33% | Draw 27% | Lask Linz 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Ried 1.17 / Lask Linz 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Ried attack 0.918 / def 0.961 | Lask Linz attack 1.069 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Ried xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Lask Linz xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ried vs Lask Linz kick off?
Ried vs Lask Linz kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Innviertel Arena.
What was the final score in Ried vs Lask Linz?
Ried 1 - 1 Lask Linz.
Where is Ried vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at Innviertel Arena.
What competition is Ried vs Lask Linz part of?
Ried vs Lask Linz is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Ried vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives Ried a 33% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ried vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ried and Lask Linz will score (BTTS).
Will Ried vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and Lask Linz?
Record (7 meetings): Ried 3W | Draws 3 | Lask Linz 1W.
What form are Ried and Lask Linz in?
Ried (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Lask Linz (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ried's attack rating (0.92) and Lask Linz's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lask Linz's attack (1.07x) against Ried's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 18/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
33%
3.03
27%
3.70
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Ried xG
Total xG
2.48
1.31
Lask Linz xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
9%
11.26
12%
8.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.0 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ried vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Ried and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Ried and 1.31 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Ried vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 18 outings, Ried have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 8W 2D 8L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lask Linz's form line: 10W 2D 6L from 18 games, 1.78 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Ried against 1.78 for Lask Linz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ried have posted 1.56 PPG from 9 outings (4W 2D 3L).
On the road, Lask Linz have gone 4W 1D 4L from 9 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ried are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.39 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Lask Linz in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ried
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ried and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
Ried have gone 8W 2D 8L in their last 18 games (1.44 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 10W 2D 6L in their last 18 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ried at home or Lask Linz away?
Ried's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ried at home: 1.56 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Ried or Lask Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ried have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Lask Linz in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lask Linz won 4-1 on 14 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ried have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lask Linz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Ried
4
Draws
2
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and Lask Linz?
From 9 meetings on record, Ried have won 3, Lask Linz have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ried and Lask Linz last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Lask Linz 4-1 Ried.
Who has won more matches between Ried and Lask Linz?
Ried have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ried 33%, Lask Linz 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Ried) and 56% (Lask Linz).
On the defensive side: Ried keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Ried have failed to score in 33% of games; Lask Linz in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ried home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ried play Lask Linz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Ried's recent matches and 44% of Lask Linz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ried vs Lask Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Ried's recent games and 56% of Lask Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ried and Lask Linz tend to score early?
Ried have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Lask Linz in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ried and Lask Linz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ried and Lask Linz finished level at 1-1 at Innviertel Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.17 xG and Lask Linz 1.31 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 0.92 / defence 0.96 against Lask Linz attack 1.07 / defence 0.95, drawn from 18/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ried 33% | Draw 27% | Lask Linz 40%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 50%, Lask Linz 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ried's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Lask Linz's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ried 1.44 PPG, Lask Linz 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.