Ried 1-0 Austria Lustenau – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ried at 64%, yet in-form Austria Lustenau provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ried vs Austria Lustenau fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 2 as Ried welcome Austria Lustenau to josko ARENA. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 July 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ried stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ried have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ried at josko ARENA this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Ried are significantly better at josko ARENA than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Austria Lustenau have recorded 1W 0D 0L from 1 outings — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Austria Lustenau have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Austria Lustenau are 2.20 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 2.02 xG and Austria Lustenau 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 1.043 / defence 1.057 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.681 / away 0.973. Data: 23 Ried games / 1 Austria Lustenau games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ried 64% | Draw 21% | Austria Lustenau 15%. Fair-value odds: Ried 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | Austria Lustenau 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Ried (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ried are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Austria Lustenau (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ried vs Austria Lustenau | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: josko ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jul 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ried 64% | Draw 21% | Austria Lustenau 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 51% | xG Ried 2.02 / Austria Lustenau 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Ried attack 1.043 / def 1.057 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.681 / away 0.973 • Poisson stance: Ried (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Ried xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Austria Lustenau xG
51%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ried vs Austria Lustenau kick off?
Ried vs Austria Lustenau kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 30 July 2022 at josko ARENA.
What was the final score in Ried vs Austria Lustenau?
Ried 1 - 0 Austria Lustenau.
Where is Ried vs Austria Lustenau being played?
The match is being played at josko ARENA.
What competition is Ried vs Austria Lustenau part of?
Ried vs Austria Lustenau is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Ried vs Austria Lustenau?
Our statistical model gives Ried a 64% chance of winning, Austria Lustenau a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Ried the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ried vs Austria Lustenau?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ried and Austria Lustenau will score (BTTS).
Will Ried vs Austria Lustenau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and Austria Lustenau?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ried and Austria Lustenau in?
Ried (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Austria Lustenau (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ried's attack rating (1.04) and Austria Lustenau's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Lustenau's attack versus Ried's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/1 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.1%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ried Win
64%
1.57
21%
4.72
15%
6.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Ried xG
Total xG
2.89
0.87
Austria Lustenau xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
6.60
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
13%
7.52
Win to Nil
27%
3.76
2%
49.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ried vs Austria Lustenau?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Ried and Austria Lustenau expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Ried and 0.87 for Austria Lustenau, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Ried vs Austria Lustenau?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 1 outings, Ried have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Ried, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Austria Lustenau's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W. It's still early in the season for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Austria Lustenau are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ried.
Goals in Recent Form
Ried are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Austria Lustenau are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Austria Lustenau's attacking output running into Ried's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Ried have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Austria Lustenau in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ried
Early Season
Austria Lustenau
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ried and Austria Lustenau in coming into this match?
Ried have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Austria Lustenau have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Ried's record when hosting Austria Lustenau specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Ried
4
Draws
0
Austria Lustenau
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and Austria Lustenau?
From 5 meetings on record, Ried have won 1, Austria Lustenau have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ried and Austria Lustenau last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Austria Lustenau 1-1 Ried.
Who has won more matches between Ried and Austria Lustenau?
Ried have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ried home games / Austria Lustenau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ried play Austria Lustenau?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Ried's recent matches and 100% of Austria Lustenau's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ried vs Austria Lustenau usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Ried's recent games and 100% of Austria Lustenau's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ried and Austria Lustenau tend to score early?
Ried have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Austria Lustenau in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ried edge out Austria Lustenau 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ried beat Austria Lustenau 1-0 at josko ARENA, Regular Season - 2, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 2.02 xG and Austria Lustenau 0.87 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ried fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Austria Lustenau landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 1.04 / defence 1.06 against Austria Lustenau attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 23/1 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ried 64% | Draw 21% | Austria Lustenau 15%, with Ried to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 0%, Austria Lustenau 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Austria Lustenau arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Ried winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ried scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Austria Lustenau managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.