Red Bull Salzburg 5-0 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 18 as Red Bull Salzburg welcome WSG Wattens to Red Bull Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 December 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: D W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Red Bull Salzburg have posted 7W 1D 0L at Red Bull Arena — 2.75 PPG. They are averaging 2.75 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.75 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Red Bull Salzburg are significantly better at Red Bull Arena than their overall form suggests.
WSG Wattens — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
WSG Wattens's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 4L across 8 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game.
On current form, Red Bull Salzburg have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Red Bull Salzburg, 0 for WSG Wattens and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 3–1 with Red Bull Salzburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Red Bull Salzburg in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
WSG Wattens in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Red Bull Salzburg 59% and WSG Wattens 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Red Bull Salzburg 53% | WSG Wattens 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Red Bull Salzburg 2.41 xG and WSG Wattens 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.307 / defence 0.861 | WSG Wattens attack 0.876 / defence 1.543. League average goals — home 1.195 / away 1.277. Red Bull Salzburg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.307 — their λ of 2.41 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. WSG Wattens bring a strong defensive rating of 1.543 — this is suppressing Red Bull Salzburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Red Bull Salzburg games / 17 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 69% | Draw 18% | WSG Wattens 13%. Fair-value odds: Red Bull Salzburg 1.45 | Draw 5.56 | WSG Wattens 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Red Bull Salzburg (69%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.37 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Red Bull Salzburg 62% | WSG Wattens 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 69% | Draw 18% | WSG Wattens 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 57% | xG Red Bull Salzburg 2.41 / WSG Wattens 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.307 / def 0.861 | WSG Wattens attack 0.876 / def 1.543 | league avg home 1.195 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.41
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Expected Goals
0.96
WSG Wattens xG
57%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens kick off?
Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens?
Red Bull Salzburg 5 - 0 WSG Wattens.
Where is Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens part of?
Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 69% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 13% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Red Bull Salzburg and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and WSG Wattens?
Record (1 meetings): Red Bull Salzburg 1W | Draws 0 | WSG Wattens 0W.
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and WSG Wattens in?
Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. WSG Wattens (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Red Bull Salzburg's attack rating (1.31) and WSG Wattens's defence rating (1.54), the model arrives at 2.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, WSG Wattens's attack versus Red Bull Salzburg's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
69%
1.45
18%
5.55
13%
7.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.41
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Total xG
3.37
0.96
WSG Wattens xG
1.45
69%
Home win
5.55
18%
Draw
7.71
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
9%
11.12
Win to Nil
26%
3.80
1%
85.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Red Bull Salzburg and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 2.41 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 0.96 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 17 outings, Red Bull Salzburg have picked up 2.47 PPG on a 13W 3D 1L record — D-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
WSG Wattens's form line: 4W 7D 6L from 17 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-L. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Red Bull Salzburg are the form team by 1.35 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against WSG Wattens.
Venue Form
On home soil, Red Bull Salzburg have posted 2.75 PPG from 8 outings (7W 1D 0L).
On the road, WSG Wattens have gone 2W 2D 4L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Red Bull Salzburg are averaging 2.18 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.47 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: WSG Wattens in 65%.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
WSG Wattens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
Red Bull Salzburg have gone 13W 3D 1L in their last 17 games (2.47 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 4W 7D 6L in their last 17 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Red Bull Salzburg at home or WSG Wattens away?
Red Bull Salzburg's home record (2.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Red Bull Salzburg at home: 2.75 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Red Bull Salzburg or WSG Wattens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, WSG Wattens in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Dec 2021, when Red Bull Salzburg won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Red Bull Salzburg's record when hosting WSG Wattens specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Red Bull Salzburg
2
Draws
1
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and WSG Wattens?
From 10 meetings on record, Red Bull Salzburg have won 7, WSG Wattens have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Red Bull Salzburg and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Red Bull Salzburg 2-3 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between Red Bull Salzburg and WSG Wattens?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Red Bull Salzburg 62%, WSG Wattens 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Red Bull Salzburg and 75% for WSG Wattens. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Red Bull Salzburg home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Red Bull Salzburg play WSG Wattens?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Red Bull Salzburg's games and 50% of WSG Wattens's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Red Bull Salzburg vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Red Bull Salzburg's matches and 75% of WSG Wattens's.
Do Red Bull Salzburg and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
Red Bull Salzburg have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Red Bull Salzburg run riot with a 5-0 hammering of WSG Wattens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat WSG Wattens 5-0 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 2.41 xG and WSG Wattens 0.96 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Red Bull Salzburg beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. WSG Wattens landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.31 / defence 0.86 against WSG Wattens attack 0.88 / defence 1.54, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 69% | Draw 18% | WSG Wattens 13%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 53%, WSG Wattens 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.47 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.75 average — above their attacking norm. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.