Red Bull Salzburg 0-0 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Red Bull Salzburg at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sturm Graz make the trip to Red Bull Arena to face Red Bull Salzburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 October 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Red Bull Salzburg (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Red Bull Salzburg's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Red Bull Arena this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Red Bull Arena.
Sturm Graz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sturm Graz away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.60 PPG for Red Bull Salzburg against 2.30 for Sturm Graz. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Red Bull Salzburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Red Bull Salzburg 50% versus Sturm Graz 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Red Bull Salzburg 59% | Sturm Graz 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Red Bull Salzburg 1.17 xG and Sturm Graz 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.152 / defence 0.580 | Sturm Graz attack 1.046 / defence 0.731. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.767. Sturm Graz's defence strength of 0.731 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Red Bull Salzburg's defence rating of 0.580 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 34 Red Bull Salzburg games / 34 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 37% | Draw 31% | Sturm Graz 32%. Fair-value odds: Red Bull Salzburg 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Sturm Graz 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Red Bull Salzburg 50% | Sturm Graz 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 37% | Draw 31% | Sturm Graz 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Red Bull Salzburg 1.17 / Sturm Graz 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.152 / def 0.580 | Sturm Graz attack 1.046 / def 0.731 | league avg home 1.393 / away 1.767 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Sturm Graz xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
Red Bull Salzburg 0 - 0 Sturm Graz.
Where is Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz part of?
Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 37% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz in?
Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Sturm Graz (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Red Bull Salzburg's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Sturm Graz's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Sturm Graz's attack (1.05x) against Red Bull Salzburg's defence (0.58x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
37%
2.69
31%
3.27
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Total xG
2.25
1.07
Sturm Graz xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
13%
7.85
10%
10.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 11.4 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.07 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Red Bull Salzburg's recent record stands at 34W 7D 3L from 44 games, a 2.48 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz, meanwhile, have gone 24W 11D 9L across 44 games — 1.89 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Red Bull Salzburg by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sturm Graz heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Red Bull Salzburg have managed 17W 4D 0L from 21 games — 2.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sturm Graz's away record stands at 10W 6D 5L across 21 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Red Bull Salzburg are averaging 2.41 goals scored and 0.61 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.91 scored and 1.23 conceded. Sturm Graz's attacking output running into Red Bull Salzburg's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Sturm Graz in 64%.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Red Bull Salzburg have gone 34W 7D 3L in their last 44 games (2.48 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 24W 11D 9L in their last 44 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Red Bull Salzburg at home or Sturm Graz away?
Red Bull Salzburg's home record (2.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Red Bull Salzburg at home: 2.62 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Red Bull Salzburg or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won 5-0 on 6 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sturm Graz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Red Bull Salzburg
4
Draws
4
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, Red Bull Salzburg have won 2, Sturm Graz have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Red Bull Salzburg 1-1 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Red Bull Salzburg 43%, Sturm Graz 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Red Bull Salzburg) and 62% (Sturm Graz). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Red Bull Salzburg home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Red Bull Salzburg play Sturm Graz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent matches and 67% of Sturm Graz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Red Bull Salzburg's matches and 62% of Sturm Graz's.
Do Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
Red Bull Salzburg have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Red Bull Salzburg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 13, as Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.17 xG and Sturm Graz 1.07 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Red Bull Salzburg fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Sturm Graz landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.15 / defence 0.58 against Sturm Graz attack 1.05 / defence 0.73, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 37% | Draw 31% | Sturm Graz 32%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 59%, Sturm Graz 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.48 PPG against 1.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.