Rapid Vienna 0-2 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 81%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rapid Vienna host TSV Hartberg at Allianz Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 July 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 0.71 xG and TSV Hartberg 3.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.722 / away 3.069. Data: 0 Rapid Vienna games / 0 TSV Hartberg games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 4% | Draw 14% | TSV Hartberg 81%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 25.00 | Draw 7.14 | TSV Hartberg 1.23. The model has a clear lean to TSV Hartberg (81%) — a 77pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.71. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.71 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 81% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jul 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 4% | Draw 14% | TSV Hartberg 81% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 50% | xG Rapid Vienna 0.71 / TSV Hartberg 3.00 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.722 / away 3.069 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (81%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
3.00
TSV Hartberg xG
50%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 24 July 2021 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Rapid Vienna 0 - 2 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 4% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 81% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rapid Vienna's attack at 0.85x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Rapid Vienna's defence, projects 3.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-3 (11.1%), 0-4 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
4%
23.53
14%
7.00
81%
1.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 3
11.1%
Away win
0 – 4
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
3.71
3.00
TSV Hartberg xG
23.53
4%
Home win
7.00
14%
Draw
1.23
81%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
5%
20.09
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
0%
–
40%
2.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 7.4 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 8.3 | 5.0 |
| 1 | 1.7 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 3.5 |
| 2 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 3.00 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 3.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 81%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Pre-Season
TSV Hartberg
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Mar 2024, when Rapid Vienna won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rapid Vienna's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Rapid Vienna
2
Draws
5
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Rapid Vienna have won 3, TSV Hartberg have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Rapid Vienna 0-2 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
TSV Hartberg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Rapid Vienna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat Rapid Vienna 0-2 at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 0.71 xG and TSV Hartberg 3.00 xG, a combined 3.71. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. TSV Hartberg landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 4% | Draw 14% | TSV Hartberg 81%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 81%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.