Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rapid Vienna host TSV Hartberg at Allianz Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 16 October 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Rapid Vienna have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Rapid Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Allianz Stadion, Rapid Vienna have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Rapid Vienna are significantly better at Allianz Stadion than their overall form suggests.
TSV Hartberg — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
TSV Hartberg's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rapid Vienna at 1.50 PPG versus TSV Hartberg's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Rapid Vienna have won 3, TSV Hartberg 5, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2026, ended 0–2 with TSV Hartberg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Rapid Vienna trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rapid Vienna 54% versus TSV Hartberg 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 46% | TSV Hartberg 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.95 xG and TSV Hartberg 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 1.560 / defence 0.804 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.998 / defence 0.766. League average goals — home 1.628 / away 1.158. Rapid Vienna carry an above-average attack strength of 1.560 — their λ of 1.95 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. TSV Hartberg's defence strength of 0.766 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 27 Rapid Vienna games / 27 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 60% | Draw 24% | TSV Hartberg 16%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | TSV Hartberg 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Rapid Vienna (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rapid Vienna as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Rapid Vienna 20% | TSV Hartberg 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 16 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 60% | Draw 24% | TSV Hartberg 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 53% | xG Rapid Vienna 1.95 / TSV Hartberg 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 1.560 / def 0.804 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.998 / def 0.766 | league avg home 1.628 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
0.93
TSV Hartberg xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Friday 16 October 2026 at Allianz Stadion.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 60% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
Record (10 meetings): Rapid Vienna 3W | Draws 2 | TSV Hartberg 5W.
What form are Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg in?
Rapid Vienna (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rapid Vienna's attack at 1.56x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Rapid Vienna's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
60%
1.67
24%
4.25
16%
6.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
2.88
0.93
TSV Hartberg xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
6.10
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
14%
6.99
Win to Nil
24%
4.22
2%
42.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.2 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 0.93 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rapid Vienna come into this having played 37 games, going 15W 8D 14L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 1.30 PPG from 37 outings (12W 12D 13L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rapid Vienna on 1.43 PPG, TSV Hartberg on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Rapid Vienna's home form reads 10W 1D 7L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, TSV Hartberg have taken 1.56 points per game from 18 outings (7W 7D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.22 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Early Season
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 15W 8D 14L in their last 37 games (1.43 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 12W 12D 13L in their last 37 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Rapid Vienna's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.72 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Mar 2024, when Rapid Vienna won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rapid Vienna's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Rapid Vienna
2
Draws
5
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Rapid Vienna have won 3, TSV Hartberg have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Rapid Vienna 0-2 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 44%, TSV Hartberg 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Rapid Vienna) and 39% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: Rapid Vienna keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; TSV Hartberg in 39%; TSV Hartberg in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rapid Vienna play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Rapid Vienna's recent matches and 44% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Rapid Vienna's recent games and 39% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Rapid Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.